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Polls or Fundamentals in N.Y. 1st District Race?

Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo
Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop won re-election to New York’s 1st district by fewer than 600 votes in 2010. This year he’s facing the same opponent and the race optics have changed.

Certainly a presidential year electorate is different from a midterm electorate, especially a Republican wave midterm electorate. But, considering the weakness of the national economy, will the different electorate benefit Bishop or Altschuler? While Obama won the 1st district narrowly in 2008, he isn’t likely to do as well this year.

The bottom line? Obama carried the district with 51 percent four years ago. Bishop won by 593 votes last time. Altschuler locked up the GOP nomination earlier this time than he did two years ago.

In other words, no matter what various polls now show, you don’t have to go far out on a limb to expect a close race in New York’s 1st district in November.

Stuart Rothenberg is editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

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