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This race is the most clearly defined because current Caucus Vice Chairman Xavier Becerra (Calif.) is term-limited and likely to vie for the Caucus chairman slot that Larson, who also is term-limited in that capacity, is vacating.
After that, the situation becomes decidedly more complicated.
For instance, according to three Democrats with knowledge of the situation, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), the Democratic National Committee chairwoman, is calling Members for support of an unspecified bid. She hasn’t yet said what she’ll be running for.
Her office said “the Congresswoman is focused on re-electing President [Barack] Obama, retaking our majority in the House and expanding our majority in the Senate.”
Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), ranking member on the Budget Committee, has been a key negotiator for Democrats on spending issues this Congress and is seen by some as a Pelosi protégé with considerable promise. But what role he’ll seek in the short term remains a mystery.
“We’re focused on getting the job done right now — seriously!” he said recently.
Although many think Van Hollen covets one of Maryland’s two seats in the Senate, Sen. Barbara Mikulski (Md.) does not appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.
The 76-year-old is the senior Senator, while the 68-year-old junior Senator, Benjamin Cardin (Md.), is in his first term and is cruising to re-election this year.
New York Rep. Steve Israel, current chairman of the DCCC, could make a bid for something but is currently occupied with the elections.
Alternatively, he could stay on as DCCC chairman, although one House aide said most think he would like to move on.
Larson is interested in staying in leadership but appears to be waiting until after the elections to see what the options are.
Democrats face an uphill climb to reclaim the House, so there will likely be the same number of leadership positions in the next Congress for ambitious Democrats.
If they were to win back the House, the Majority Leader slot would open a new, additional position.
When Democrats were in the majority, the position of Assistant to the Speaker existed and Van Hollen filled it. But that post may be difficult to reinstate, given the Assistant Minority Leader role created for Rep. James Clyburn (S.C.).
There is also nothing preventing another Democrat from vying for that role.
Democrats are waiting to see whether Pelosi stays for the duration of the 113th Congress, although people who know her well say she is unlikely to opt for a quick exit.
Some instead predict that Pelosi will stay in Congress to help set the stage for a successor, rather than allow Hoyer to simply move up the ranks to replace her.