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Citing the recent Supreme Court ruling and new government reports about Medicare premiums, Rep. Gerry Connolly called the estimate one of a “series of victories” for the law.
“Too early to uncork the champagne, but at some point, I think this bill is up. The empirical evidence, the analytical evidence, CBO to wit, all are pointing in the direction of support for the assertions we made about the ACA,” the Virginia Democrat said.
The CBO predicted that 3 million fewer people will have health insurance under the law in 2022 after the court’s decision. Still, repealing it would double the number of people without health insurance from 30 million to 60 million, the CBO projected.
The CBO projected that 6 million fewer people will sign up for Medicaid and 3 million more will sign up for federally subsidized insurance exchanges. The exchange subsidies cost the government about $9,000 a year versus $6,000 for Medicaid, the CBO said. On net, however, the government will save money because fewer people would be getting subsidized at all.
House Energy and Commerce ranking member Henry Waxman said the prospect of states opting out of the new Medicaid funding was troubling.
“This is only a guess, but I think when it comes down to it, the states are going to be more likely to take the Medicaid coverage than CBO estimates. But if we’re looking at 3 million people that won’t get health care coverage, that’s something to be concerned about,” the California Democrat said.
Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) said that it would fall to employers and insurers to cover those people and that raises the cost of the legislation — not to the government but to private companies.
“If they can be required to do it, that’s something employers will have to bear and doesn’t get counted in the score for the legislation,” he said. “That’s going to raise costs and it won’t be scored. It’s not a cost to government, it’s a cost to citizens. So the overall cost we think of this is enormous.”
“There’s so much about this that the law of unintended consequences covers that we don’t know about yet that I think mandates that we repeal it if we can,” Goodlatte said.
The CBO cautioned about uncertainty in its estimates.
“Assessing the effects of making broad changes in the nation’s health care and health insurance systems requires estimates of a broad array of technical, behavioral, and economic factors. Separating the incremental effects of the provisions in the ACA that affect spending for ongoing programs and revenue streams becomes more uncertain as the time since enactment grows,” the report stated.