Some will be more vulnerable than others at this time next year, but the GOP freshman class won't all be able to count on the National Republican Congressional Committee, which recently announced the first additions to its incumbent retention Patriot program. Democrats will be targeting many of them in pursuit of the 24 seats needed to take back the majority.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Jim Costa (Calif.), who won in 2010 by just 3,000 votes, raised $73,000 and had $58,000 on hand. He's not known as the strongest fundraiser, but Costa might move onto retirement watch lists, especially with his district likely getting more competitive.
Across the country, another Democrat in similar circumstances is North Carolina Rep. Brad Miller, who raised $94,000 last quarter and had just $127,000 in the bank. He's one of four Democrats in the state whose newly shaped districts will put them in further political danger.
Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), who is reportedly under consideration for a job at the University of Tennessee, raised $176,000, and Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.) raised $136,000. Both are high on the GOP's 2012 target list.
Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) turned in one of the lowest quarters nationwide. He raised just $34,000 and had $185,000 in the bank. Yarmuth, who entered Congress during the 2006 Democratic wave, won by more than 10 points last cycle.
"He's definitely running again. As you may know, there's a governor's race in our state this year, so a lot of local fundraising was put on hold because of that," Yarmuth spokesman Trey Pollard told Roll Call. "But going into the future, I think he's pretty confident he'll be able to have the resources he needs to run."
Freshman Rep. Bill Keating (D-Mass.), who won an open seat last year by fewer than 5 points, raised $90,000 and had just $129,000 in the bank. Massachusetts legislators are currently agonizing over their decision about which seat to eliminate as a result of reapportionment. As the newest Member, Keating is a possible target.
Another Member affected by redistricting is Rep. Timothy Johnson (R-Ill.), whose district will be far more competitive than it was last cycle. Johnson raised $125,000 and had $284,000 in the bank.