Rep. John Tierney is the only potentially vulnerable Massachusetts Democrat in this election cycle because of the more conservative bent of voters in his district, legal troubles in his family and a very credible GOP challenger.
The Congressman has not been implicated in any wrongdoing, but the headlines and the innuendo associated with Tierney’s wife’s case and her testimony hurt his brand and his chances for re-election, Bay State strategists tell Roll Call. National Democrats insisted the allegations have already been vetted by voters: Patrice Tierney’s guilty plea came the month before the 2010 elections and Tierney beat 2010 GOP nominee attorney Bill Hudak by a comfortable margin. But Tierney is likely to face a stronger challenger this cycle. Former state Sen. Richard Tisei, who was the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor last year, served in the state Legislature representing a part of the 6th district for a quarter of a century. Tisei, 49, is openly gay and is seen as an experienced and disciplined politician with a proven ability to raise money. But before he can take on Tierney, he’ll have to best Hudak in a primary. Tisei should have a substantial edge in that race.
Redistricting didn’t help Tierney’s cause, with the new lines leaving the district intact and adding the towns of Tewksbury, Billerica and a part of Andover. All three municipalities voted for now-Sen. Scott Brown (R) in the upset 2010 special election. In the 2008 presidential election, Tewksbury went for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), while Billerica and Andover voted for Obama. Overall, the new 6th is not politically very different than the current 6th. The district’s Democratic performance — a measure of how Democrats did on the ballot in relevant recent historical races — fell about 1 point, to 50.9 percent.
Tierney has incumbency on his side, had $441,000 in cash on hand at the end of September and has a strong team of consultants, including Jefrey Pollock for polling and Ann Liston for media. National Democrats are quick to emphasize that Tisei must first get through a primary fight and stress that he has years of votes in the Legislature, which might weigh him down. But if there’s a race to watch in the bluest of blue states, this is it.
7th District Incumbent: Mike Capuano (D) 7th term (98 percent) Rating: Safe Democratic
There are few more Democratic districts in the nation than the 7th, which encompasses a big portion of Boston and the surrounding municipalities of Chelsea, Everett and Milton. It also includes the city of Randolph, part of Cambridge, and Capuano’s hometown of Somerville, where he served as mayor for almost a decade. Capuano will handily win re-election in this majority-minority district.
8th district Incumbent: Stephen Lynch (D) 5th full term (68 percent) Rating: Safe Democratic
Lynch is a safe bet to win this district that includes part of Boston and towns to its south and east. A former ironworker and longtime union man, Lynch has won easily in every Congressional election he’s run in since he garnered the Democratic nomination for the special election to fill the late Rep. Joe Moakley’s (D) seat. The redistricting process was good to him, and he should be on a path to a comfortable victory.
9th district Incumbent: Bill Keating (D) 1st term (47 percent) Rating: Safe Democratic
Keating’s job got a bit tougher when his Quincy home was drawn into the 8th. He plans to change his primary residence to a longtime summer home on Cape Cod. The 9th includes all of the Cape and portions of the South Shore and South Coast regions of the commonwealth, some of which have historically favored Republicans. Still, a Democrat should win here in 2012 with Obama at the top of the ticket. And with no credible Republican candidates on the horizon, it could even be an easy run for Democrats to retain this seat.
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