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Defense Cuts Will Likely Stay in Place if Super Committee Fails

Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo
Sens. John McCain (left) and Lindsey Graham have requested a detailed report from the Pentagon about the potential effects of large defense cuts on the U.S. military.

Kirk, who said he is talking informally to McCain, put a high priority on the credit rating of the U.S. government.

"If you cripple the super committee, you'll lose the AAA credit rating of the United States, and if you obviated the sequester, you risk a further collapse in the credit of the United States, and you can well imagine a future where interest rates are at Jimmy Carter levels within a very short time," Kirk warned.

Graham sees the landscape differently: "We're not going to destroy the military because of a ratings agency."

McCain and Graham said they are not yet working with Senate leadership on their alternative, and it would be very difficult for leaders who agreed to the original deficit reduction plan in August to go back on their word.

In a roundtable with reporters late last week, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) dismissed the idea that Congress could get rid of the trigger, saying he feels bound to the plans for sequestration to which the House, the Senate and Obama agreed.

"Me, personally? Yes, I would feel bound. It was part of the agreement. And so either we succeed or we're in the sequester. The sequester is ugly. Why? Because we didn't want anybody to go there. That's why we have to succeed," Boehner said.

It's the depth of the "ugliness" that has increased the level of chatter about repealing the sequester in the first place.

"Cuts of this magnitude would be catastrophic to the military, and in the case of the Army would significantly reduce our capability and capacity to assure our partners abroad, respond to crisis, and deter our potential adversaries, while threatening the readiness and potentially the all-volunteer force," Ordierno told the House Armed Services Committee last week.

But perhaps no one has brought more attention to the idea of rolling back the defense cuts than Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), who sits on the super committee. Kyl has said repeatedly he would fight the cuts and has brought up the topic of defense in several open super committee hearings, including a Sept. 13 session in which he asked the Congressional Budget Office director whether defense cuts would risk unemployment in security industries and therefore "delay economic recovery." The budget chief said, "Yes."

Former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles, a co-chairman of the president's deficit commission, told the super committee last week that rolling back the defense cuts would "be disastrous. I think people would look at this country and say, 'You guys can't govern.' ... They would think that we were on our way to becoming a second-rate power."

Given the vacuum being created by the super committee and its impasse yet again over taxes, Democrats in Congress were upset that Republicans have begun talking so openly about repeal, as if assuming failure.

"There seems to be a growing chorus on their side to roll back the trigger, which implies they're giving up prematurely and anticipating failure," said one Democratic aide. "It's playing with fire to try to claw back cuts we've already agreed to."

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