With 50 Democrats defeated in November 2010 and 89 freshman Republicans in Congress now, there will likely be fewer retirements than normal. But retirements will come, and there is an expectation based on simple math that more Democrats than Republicans will retire this cycle.
More than one-third of the GOP conference is serving a first term, and the rest of the party's Members are less likely to go now that their party holds power for the first time since 2006.
Still, Vogel said even if Democrats have more retirements, those vacancies likely won't be in competitive districts.
"I wouldn't expect an avalanche of Democrats in marginal districts announcing their retirements over the next several months," Vogel said. "Frankly, after losing [a net] 63 seats last cycle, there are not that many Democrats left in marginal seats."