Aug. 20, 2014 SIGN IN | REGISTER

Race Ratings: Wisconsin GOP Likely to Keep Majority

Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo
Rep. Reid Ribble so far has yet to garner a Democratic challenger, but Democrats think the freshman Congressman is beatable.

After redistricting, the 3rd became more Democratic. Kind survived a close race in a tough year for his party, but the new lines may entice him to stay in a safer seat. There are currently no Republicans in the race.

4th district
Incumbent: Gwen Moore (D)
4th term (69 percent)
Rating: Safe Democratic

This Milwaukee-based district is the most Democratic in the state, and Moore should have no trouble winning a fifth term. A telling detail is that her lowest winning percentage was last year.

5th district
Incumbent: Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
17th term (69 percent)
Rating: Safe Republican

The shape of this district changed, but its Republican edge did not. Sensenbrenner has never faced a close election and likely won't again in 2012.

6th district
Incumbent: Tom Petri (R)
16th term (71 percent)
Rating: Safe Republican

This district got slightly more Republican and should not give Petri, who hasn't had a close election in 20 years, cause for concern.

7th district
Incumbent: Sean Duffy (R)
1st term (52 percent)
Rating: Leans Republican

One of two top targets for Democrats, Duffy received the biggest boost from redistricting, as his district shed some Democratic areas that would have made it better territory for his rivals.

Democratic presidential candidates carried Duffy's current district in 2004 and 2008, but under the new 7th district lines, President George W. Bush would have won it with 51 percent.

The district remains tough, though, and Democrats have recruited as their candidate Pat Kreitlow, a former TV anchor who served one term in the state Senate before being defeated last year. He had raised less than $100,000 through the end of June, compared with Duffy's more than $600,000.

This race has the potential to become competitive, and both national parties are paying close attention. But with Duffy's head start on fundraising and the district moving in the right direction for him, Duffy has the early advantage.

8th district
Incumbent: Reid Ribble (R)
1st term (55 percent)
Rating: Likely Republican

Ribble, who defeated two-term Rep. Steve Kagen (D) last year, so far has yet to garner a Democratic challenger. One insider said Kagen was still considering mounting a comeback bid for his former seat, but Ribble beat him by 10 points last cycle and Kagen has reported no fundraising so far this year.

Democrats think the freshman Congressman is beatable. But in a favorable district with no challenger, Ribble at this point is likely to win re-election.

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