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The NRCC has dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into television spots that criticize Barber for health care reform and Medicare cuts that Republicans charge were included in President Barack Obama’s health care law. In the ads, the NRCC juxtaposes Barber with shots of Obama and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). The Democrats, meanwhile, are going after Kelly on Medicare and Social Security, suggesting he would support House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget plan.
The DCCC and House Majority PAC have invested in Barber. On the Republican side, the NRCC and Citizens United have made heavy bets. Each side has spent about a million dollars, according to a source who tracks media buys.
A Democratic consultant compared the race to Rep. Mark Critz’s (D-Pa.) successful 2010 bid to replace his former boss, the late Rep. John Murtha, and cautioned against drawing national conclusions from the outcome because of the emotion involved in a race like this.
“Specials are always high-profile but more so when you are replacing a legendary figure,” the Democratic consultant said. “As it’s currently drawn, this is a very tough seat for Democrats to hold, but Rep. Giffords held it for three cycles and Mr. Critz succeeded Mr. Murtha, so I like our chances.”
In a sense, this is a rematch of the 2010 Giffords-Kelly race, with both campaign teams making a return appearance for the special. Barber’s political team, including McLeod, were with Giffords in 2010.
Both campaigns are emphasizing grass-roots politicking, running phonebanks and knocking on doors. But the sheer amount of money spent on television advertising in the small Tucson market is likely to have a greater impact on the outcome of the election.
“I don’t think there’s such a thing as over saturation in a tight race,” an Arizona Republican strategist said.
Both parties have resorted to the messaging used in the 2010 cycle in the television ads, with Republicans attempting to demonize Pelosi and Democrats accusing the Republican candidate of being “extreme” and tied to the tea party. The question for the fall is whether these tactics will work.
There will be no rest for the winner of the 8th district special. He will have to run for re-election in the fall in a redrawn district, the new Arizona 2nd.
That seat will be slightly more favorable for the Democrats.