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New York Freshmen Most Vulnerable

Kathy Kmonicek/Associated Press
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (left) isn’t facing a competitive race this cycle, but his job will be focusing on protecting vulnerable incumbents such as Rep. Tim Bishop.

“Collins has the edge on money, but Bellavia has the edge on local support,” one upstate New York GOP consultant explained. As for the general, the consultant was not particularly bullish: “Hochul is pretty noncontroversial and well-liked.”

And in a Republican district, she’ll be able to claim at least some independence. According to a 2011 Congressional Quarterly vote study, she voted with Democrats only 81 percent of the time in votes where a majority of Democrats voted against a majority for Republicans.

By the numbers, this district should lean Republican, but Hochul’s likability and the potential GOP contenders make this a tossup race for now.

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