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My guess (and it’s purely a guess and therefore not worth much) is that Obama holds a narrow lead over Romney, probably in the low-to-middle single digits. That lead could well shrink during the next couple of months, but even if it doesn’t, the general election is likely to be close if jobs and gas prices continue to be problems for the White House.
In any case, my advice is clear: Don’t treat any survey as if it has a monopoly on the truth.
Stuart Rothenberg is editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.