Gallup/USA Today’s Swing States Poll showed that support for President Barack Obama surged among women ages 18 to 49 during the past month.
As Page noted, the Swing States Poll showed that women ages 18 to 49 surged during the past month for Obama. He drew 49 percent of them in late February but 61 percent in late March. Romney’s support among those same women plunged, going from 44 percent to 30 percent.
But if you look at the national Gallup poll numbers for women ages 18 to 49, in surveys conducted at virtually the same time as the February and March Swing States polls, you find that Obama’s numbers slipped — yes, slipped — by 4 points, from 59 percent in February to 55 percent in March. And Romney’s support among that same demographic group dropped by only a single point, from 37 percent to 36 percent.
Of course, it is the Swing States Poll that got all of the attention, and much of the commentary about it has concluded that the recent political discussion of birth control and funding for Planned Parenthood alienated women, who have fled Romney for Obama on the ballot test.
Intuitively, that seems right to me, but that doesn’t stop me from asking obvious questions. Why don’t the national polls show the same trend as the Swing States polls, particularly among female registered voters ages 18 to 49, as they are all conducted by Gallup? And if something really big happened during March, why is Obama’s support among women in Gallup’s late March national poll identical to his support from them in the firm’s January survey?
I can’t explain the different results, and I’m not trying to. But I do think the contradiction is worth noting and considering.
Anyway, all of the attention on the changing views of women in this age group during the past month might miss a much larger, more important development that has gone largely ignored. Both of Gallup’s national polls and Swing States surveys for USA Today confirm that during the past six months, the more dramatic change in presidential preference has been among men, not women.
In October, Gallup’s national poll found that Obama led Romney by 14 points among women (54 percent to 40 percent). That margin shrunk only slightly, to 12 points, in March. But among men, Romney’s 16-point advantage in October shrunk to just 3 points in March.
In Gallup/USA Today Swing States polling, among women, Obama drew 51 percent in October and 54 percent in March, a gain of 3 points. Romney, in contrast, lost 6 points during the same period, dropping from 42 percent to just 36 percent.
Clearly, Romney can’t win the White House if he is winning only 40 percent of female voters nationally or 36 percent of female voters from the 10 swing states. But it’s equally true that Romney can’t defeat Obama if the Republican carries men by only 3 points (as he does in Gallup’s most recent national poll) or by a single point (as he does in the most recent Swing States survey).
Why have we heard so much about female voters and little or nothing about men? I’d guess that it is because the narrative has been set (about the Republican “war on women”), so journalists look for data and anecdotes that fit into it. Certainly, some of it has to do with the reach of USA Today.
Rep. Bill Cassidy has his blood drawn by Alesha Barbour during a free hepatitis screening in the Rayburn House Office Building hosted by the Congressional Viral Hepatitis Caucus to recognize "National Viral Hepatitis Testing Day."
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