Incumbent: David Rivera (R)
1st term (52 percent)
Rating: Leans Republican
This contest is likely to pit Rivera, who has been under investigation for alleged financial improprieties since he took the oath last January, against state Rep. Luis Garcia (D). Rivera's ethics troubles have left him struggling to raise money, which has opened the prospect of a primary challenge. But none has materialized so far. Republicans say Rivera is still popular in the Miami-area district and is likely to be the GOP nominee.
If there is one person who could knock him out, however, Florida Republicans say it would be state Rep. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R).
Garcia, an affable former fireman, is a good fit for the district, but, privately, Democrats grumble that he needs to up his fundraising game to make a race in this Republican district truly competitive.
Incumbent: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
11th full term (69 percent)
Rating: Safe Republican
Sometime in the future, Ros-Lehtinen won't run for re-election and this could be a competitive district. Not in 2012.
The popular chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee should win this Hispanic-majority district without any trouble. Under the new lines, Ros-Lehtinen was disappointed to lose the Florida Keys, but the district is a few points more Republican than her current district, so her political risk remains negligible. Her popularity means that even if President Barack Obama wins the reconfigured 27th this year, she'll handily outperform him.comments powered by Disqus