In any other election cycle, there would be no question that Sen. Lisa Murkowski was headed for an easy, blowout win over attorney and tea party favorite Joe Miller in the Aug. 24 Alaska Republican primary.
Her position as a senior Republican leader and her strong fundraising advantage and Alaskas partially open primary system, distrust of outsiders and historic tendency to embrace incumbency would usually make her immune to an intraparty ousting.
But in the lower 48, as Alaskans refer to the continental United States, some Republican incumbents and Democrats, for that matter have found themselves in unexpectedly tough primaries, and a few have actually lost. None of this appears beyond Murkowski, the Senate Republican Conference vice chairwoman, who is acutely cognizant of the unpredictable political environment and isnt taking her primary challenge for granted.
Anytime youve got an opponent, youve got a race, so were taking it very seriously, Murkowski said Thursday.
Miller has been endorsed by the Tea Party Express and former Gov. Sarah Palin, who defeated Murkowskis father in the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary. Murkowski is taking the Fairbanks Republican seriously enough that she plans to endure the 20 hours round-trip travel time to fly home Friday and spend about 36 hours on the ground campaigning before she heads back to Washington, D.C., for votes.
Murkowski closed the second-quarter fundraising period with $2.4 million in cash on hand, dwarfing Millers $124,384. Of that, $104,000 consists of a personal loan Miller made to his campaign. But Miller insists that Murkowskis war chest will go only so far in Alaskas inexpensive media market before her ads risk oversaturation, while arguing that his campaign volunteers are more numerous and energized.
Were going to win this primary, Miller said Monday in a telephone interview.
Although most Members seeking re-election this year have handily coasted through their primaries, a raft of House and Senate incumbents of both parties have fallen to intraparty challenges.
Meanwhile, some open-seat contests have seen establishment-backed candidates lose to less well-funded underdogs who surged on the strength of tea party support, among them Senate GOP nominees Sharron Angle in Nevada and Rand Paul in Kentucky.
In the Senate, Bob Bennett (R-Utah) and Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) fell to primary challengers, with Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) winning her primary only after being forced into a runoff. Bennett probably would have won renomination had he been allowed onto Utahs June 22 primary ballot, but his defeat at the hands of Republican activists during a state GOP nominating convention provided a window into the anti-establishment sentiment contributing to voter anger.
Public polling in the Murkowski-Miller primary appears to be nonexistent, although the Senators campaign indicated in a recent interview that its private surveys show the incumbent comfortably ahead. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise, although Republican sources in Washington say Murkowski has long feared and thus, prepared for the possibility of a bruising primary. Murkowski conceded that it could yet get ugly.