- Kathleen Matthews Joins Race for Van Hollen's Seat
- Let Voters Judge Early Ads
- Kelly Wins Runoff for Mississippi House Seat
- DNC's Mo Elleithee Leaving Politics for Georgetown
- Rematches Invite 'Retread' Label, Familiar Themes
Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl plans to announce his 2012 intentions in February, and a decision by the Arizona Republican to retire could ignite a heated race for his No. 2 slot while unleashing significant changes within the GOP leadership.
Kyl said he is close to a decision on whether to seek a fourth term. But the Minority Whip is keeping close counsel — so much so that even many longtime Kyl supporters who otherwise expect him to run for re-election now believe retirement is a real possibility.
Should that be Kyl’s choice, the favorites to replace him as Whip in 2013 are Republican Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander (Tenn.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas), with Republican Policy Committee Chairman John Thune (S.D.) also viewed as a contender.
“The most viable would be John Cornyn because of his success at the NRSC, and he might have another good election cycle,” a former Senate Republican leadership aide said. “Also Thune, if he doesn’t run for president, and Lamar Alexander, who is very close with” Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.).
Alexander has strong relationships with both conservative and moderate Republicans, and he mounted a strong bid for Whip after the 2006 elections, losing a close contest to then-Sen. Trent Lott (Miss.). When Lott resigned from office a year later to go work downtown, Kyl got the post.
Cornyn has received high marks from his colleagues for his work at the NRSC. The Republicans picked up seven seats last cycle, overcoming initial predictions that the party would lose ground. And with 23 Democrats up in 2012 compared with only 10 Republicans, the GOP has a legitimate shot at capturing the majority.
Republican sources on and off Capitol Hill say that Cornyn, who served as Conference vice chairman before taking over the NRSC, could have the edge over Alexander if both were to run for Whip. That advantage could come from the support of Senators whom Cornyn helped elect in 2010 and those he would presumably aid in 2012. Either way, the Texan is expected to land in leadership in some capacity in 2013.
One Republican lobbyist who follows the Senate referred to Cornyn as the favorite to succeed Kyl if the Arizonan retires. Kyl’s departure could lead to a domino effect at the top of the Republican Conference and create openings that might interest several ambitious Senators.
Openings sometimes occur because of the rule that limits Senators to no more than six years in one leadership position, but the GOP Conference leader is exempted from this regulation.
Those viewed as ambitious include Sen. Bob Corker (Tenn.), a first-term lawmaker who is running for re-election next year. Corker has been mentioned by Republican operatives who monitor the Senate as a logical choice for NRSC chairman in the 2014 cycle, but he was tight-lipped about his desire to join leadership when asked.