“It really doesn’t matter at this point if Republicans are pushing the edge of the envelope in terms of new targets because there’s already very little question about the outcome of this election,” Democratic pollster Alan Secrest said. “There are many individual races still very much up in the air, but the die has been cast in terms of this year’s trend.”
With less than a week to go until Election Day, Republicans are also watching other Democratic-leaning districts, including those of Reps. Dave Loebsack (Iowa), Mike Michaud (Maine) and Solomon Ortiz (Texas), to see whether they become late-breaking races.
Democratic strategists contend that some of the new NRCC spending is defensive and is needed to counteract the flood of Democratic money that is being spent. For example, the spending on Rep. Tim Bishop’s race in New York comes after Democratic groups have been spending heavily to attack the Republican in the race.
“The reality is that Republicans have not closed the door on many of the races that they claim they were targeting,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Jennifer Crider. “As a result, what they’re doing is throwing more spaghetti against the wall and hoping some of it sticks. Democrats are prepared. They won’t be taken by surprise, and it’s not going to work.”
Democratic surprises on Election Day may be tougher to identify.
“A lot of races that look like victories [for Democrats] will be categorized as a surprise just because of the environment,” Democratic pollster Peter Brodnitz said at a breakfast meeting hosted by Third Way on Wednesday.
But the biggest shockers for Democrats will likely come from Members who pull out victory despite being top targets.
Reps. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) and Frank Kratovil (D-Md.) both won their seats by less than 1 point in 2008 and both began the cycle as top targets. Yet one Republican strategist admitted Wednesday that it’s conceivable that one or both may hang on next week.
Perriello is benefitting from a flood of outside spending that Republicans have been unable to match. Perriello is also getting a visit from Obama on Friday in Charlottesville, a move that campaign strategists said will do more good than harm just days before the elections.
Kratovil is expected to benefit from the upballot gubernatorial race where Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) is favored.
Other possible surprise Democratic victories mentioned by Republican insiders include Reps. Harry Mitchell (Ariz.), Michael Arcuri (N.Y.) and state Sen. Julie Lassa in Wisconsin’s open 7th district seat.
Still, the bigger story coming out of election night will be how successful Republicans were in their effort to capitalize on what has been a huge House playing field.
GOP strategist Chris Perkins said that in some ways Republicans have been more focused on expanding the playing field than reinforcing their top priority races, but that strategy has been successful in forcing Democrats to pull out of several high-profile tossup districts and in turning long shots and bluffs into real opportunities.
House Democratic Caucus Chairman Xavier Becerra and Rep. Joseph Crowley, vice chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, address a news conference immediately after the closed caucus meeting.
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