The elections are still more than a month away, but all signs indicate that an angry electorate is going to follow the dictum of legendary screen siren Mae West: “When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I have not tried before.”
Actually, Americans have tried practically every permutation of government in recent years — all-Republican rule (2001-2007), all-Democratic rule (1993-95 and 2009-present) and divided government with different parties in charge of the White House and Congress.
But the arrangement we haven’t tried lately — and which sort of worked when we did — had a Democrat in the White House and Republicans in control of Congress, from 1995 to 2001.
Of course, Republicans impeached Bill Clinton and they shut down the government. But he and the GOP also forged an agreement on welfare reform and balanced the budget.
In August, the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that, by 55 percent to 39 percent, voters said, “It is more important to have Republicans in charge of Congress to act as a check on President Barack Obama’s policies” rather than Democrats in charge supporting them.
It’s far from a done deal, for sure, but every traditional measure of voter attitudes suggests this will be a “wave” election big enough to hand control of the House, and maybe even the Senate, to Republicans.
And even if the GOP falls short — picking up, say eight Senate seats instead of 10 — Republicans will be ideologically in control of the body.
There are obviously two ways to anticipate an election’s outcome — weigh national polling factors and look race by race.
Among the national factors, Obama’s approval rating — 45 percent in the Gallup poll — puts him in the range of Lyndon B. Johnson in 1966 (44 percent), whose Democrats lost 47 House seats, and Clinton in 1994 (46 percent), whose party lost 53 seats and control of the House.
Then there’s Congress’ approval rating — 18 percent, according to Gallup, almost the lowest ever and lower than in any midterm election year, including 1994 (23 percent) and 2006 (26 percent), when Republicans lost 30 seats and control of the House.
Gallup’s measure of public satisfaction with the direction of the country — 19 percent — is the lowest in the 18 years the question’s been asked.
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC “right track, wrong track” numbers are better — 32 percent positive and 20 points higher than in 2008, but on par with the wave in 2006.
As the Pew poll reported two weeks ago, independent voters are turning against Democrats — 49 percent to
36 percent — almost as strongly as they were against Republicans in 2006 and more than in 2008.
And on the national generic ballot question, Pew is showing a Republican lead among likely voters of 50 percent to 43 percent — huge. The NBC poll has Republicans up by 3, a fall-off from 9 in late August.
Every measure of voter enthusiasm — primary turnout, intention to vote, etc. — also leans strongly Republican, with tea party activists leading the charge.
Among leading race-by-race analysts, RealClearPolitics.com is putting Republicans ahead in 207 House races, Democrats in 191 and listing 37 as tossups — of which the GOP needs to take only 11 to take control.
Rep. Bill Cassidy has his blood drawn by Alesha Barbour during a free hepatitis screening in the Rayburn House Office Building hosted by the Congressional Viral Hepatitis Caucus to recognize "National Viral Hepatitis Testing Day."
Roll Call has launched a new feature, Hill Navigator, to advise congressional staffers and would-be staffers on how to manage workplace issues on Capitol Hill. Please send us your questions — anything from office etiquette, to handling awkward moments, to what happens when the work life gets too personal. Submissions will be treated anonymously.
