Feb. 7, 2016 SIGN IN | REGISTER

Race Ratings: GOP Safe as Can Be in Alabama

File Photo
A spokeswoman for the Congresswoman said Rep. Martha Roby was "very happy" with the final redistricting map.

3rd District
Incumbent: Mike Rogers (R)
5th term (59 percent)
Rating: Safe Republican

The makeup of the 3rd has never made victory a stroll in the park for Rogers, but a bid for a sixth term will be a lot easier for him than ever before. According to figures crunched by a Republican source in Washington, Rogers got the biggest boost from the new map because the partisan tilt of the 3rd will move substantially to the right. Under the new district lines, the 3rd now includes the heavily Republican St. Claire County, where Sen. John McCain won 81 percent of the vote in 2008. It also splits over three districts the heavily Democratic Montgomery County, which sits mostly in the 3rd under the current lines.

4th District
Incumbent: Robert Aderholt (R)
8th term (unopposed)
Rating: Safe Republican

The 4th district changes geographically under the new map, though not politically. The district stretches from the Mississippi border to the Georgia state line. The 4th gained the northern portion of Tuscaloosa County and lost almost all of Blount County. Strengthening the GOP tilt of the 5th, the new lines split the Democratic Shoals region of the state, putting Colbert County in Aderholt's district. This move particularly rankled Democrats in the state, who said the Shoals, split for the first time since Reconstruction, have a history of working together as a cohesive region.

Republican sources said Aderholt is unhappy with the substantive changes to his constituent base. Another source said the new map might force him to move his district offices. Still, he looks to be safe for re-election to a ninth term.

5th District
Incumbent: Mo Brooks (R)
1st term (58 percent)
Rating: Safe Republican

Brooks beat Democrat Steve Raby in every county in the 5th except for Lawrence. So the new lines must be particularly welcome for the GOP because Lawrence and Colbert counties were moved to the 4th. Under the new map, the 5th district includes the five northernmost counties in the state along with Morgan County. Democrats see this district as a potential opportunity for a pickup. They cite the fact that until then-Rep. Parker Griffith switched parties in 2009 and became a Republican, a Democrat represented the 5th for more than 100 years. But under the new lines, a change of party here in 2012 would be quite a stretch.

6th District
Incumbent: Spencer Bachus (R)
10th term (unopposed)
Rating: Safe Republican

What would the safest of safe Republican districts look like if its new lines were drawn by a Republican Legislature and signed into law by a Republican governor in a ruby red state? Something like the 6th, centered on Birmingham's suburbs.

Since he unseated Democratic Rep. Ben Erdreich (D) in 1992 with 52 percent of the vote, Bachus hasn't received less than 70 percent of the vote. His chief of staff said Bachus plans to seek re-election.

7th District
Incumbent: Terri Sewell (D)
1st term (72 percent)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Located on the western border of the state, the 7th district snakes out to Birmingham to the north, Montgomery to the east and toward Mobile in the South. The district is 64 percent black and heavily Democratic. The new map added more Democrats to the 7th.

comments powered by Disqus





Want Roll Call on your doorstep?