July 24, 2014 SIGN IN | REGISTER

Race Ratings: Boren’s Exit Makes for Tossup

File Photo
Ex-Rep. Brad Carson (right) said Tuesday that he will seek his old House seat after Rep. Dan Boren’s retirement announcement. Carson lost a 2004 Senate bid.

5th District
Incumbent: James Lankford (R)
1st term (63 percent)
Rating: Safe Republican

This is also a safe Republican seat, even though it includes the largest metropolitan area in the state by population and geography: Oklahoma City.

Lankford came out of nowhere in the 2010 GOP primary to win the open seat previously held by now-Gov. Mary Fallin (R). Local political operatives say the former Christian Camp director will have no problem winning re-election in the primary or general election in 2012.

However, watch out for this district during the course of the next decade. As more Oklahoma City residents continue to move out to the suburbs and exurbs in the surrounding counties, the urban areas in that district are trending slightly Democratic. In addition, there are pockets of Democrats in neighboring Seminole County.

Republicans have a lock on this seat for now, but they will likely have to do a more significant redraw in 10 years to shore up the districtís GOP lean.

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