Incumbent: James Lankford (R)
1st term (63 percent)
Rating: Safe Republican
This is also a safe Republican seat, even though it includes the largest metropolitan area in the state by population and geography: Oklahoma City.
Lankford came out of nowhere in the 2010 GOP primary to win the open seat previously held by now-Gov. Mary Fallin (R). Local political operatives say the former Christian Camp director will have no problem winning re-election in the primary or general election in 2012.
However, watch out for this district during the course of the next decade. As more Oklahoma City residents continue to move out to the suburbs and exurbs in the surrounding counties, the urban areas in that district are trending slightly Democratic. In addition, there are pockets of Democrats in neighboring Seminole County.
Republicans have a lock on this seat for now, but they will likely have to do a more significant redraw in 10 years to shore up the district’s GOP lean.comments powered by Disqus