Incumbent: Mike Ross (D)
6th term (58 percent)
Rating: Likely Democratic
If Ross, a Blue Dog, could survive the wave election of 2010 in his GOP southern Arkansas district, he'll probably be able to survive whatever comes his way in 2012. Ross garnered 58 percent of the vote last cycle against Beth Anne Rankin (R).
His new district is slightly more Republican than before, but Ross has managed to insulate himself from charges that he is a Washington Democrat by voting against his party a substantial amount of the time.
Expect the National Republican Congressional Committee to get involved in the effort to pick off Ross. But Democrats in the state say Ross is a likely gubernatorial candidate for governor in 2014, which means it will be particularly difficult for the party to hold that district in the next cycle.