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It’s a tough call for the Senate campaign committees, which try to recruit the best candidates as early as possible. There’s no doubt that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) would be the GOP’s preferred candidate to run against Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in 2012.
But there’s not even a deadline for finishing a Congressional map in West Virginia — and in the meantime, Capito told Roll Call that she is “keeping her options open” for a statewide run. She said she’ll have “plenty of time” to decide before the January filing deadline.
“I think the opportunity to run for statewide office is something that I’m interested in. At this point, I haven’t made a decision on that,” she said. “I just have to see where I am, see what my supporters would like me to do. See what the landscape is going to be in 2012. I think it’s just a little too early to predict.”
Similarly, Democrats are waiting to see whether one of the House Democrats from Massachusetts will opt to run for Senate. The Bay State is losing one House seat in 2012, but all nine Members have said they’ll run for re-election — which means at least one of them will be out of a job next cycle until they move on.
Rep. Stephen Lynch (D), who has been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, said he’s “not particularly” looking at running against Brown, but he doesn’t plan on making a final decision for a long time.
“I don’t make any decision until I absolutely have to. There’s a lot of time,” he told Roll Call. “If I have several months, why would you make a decision now when you’ll have more information four months from now, and still be able to make a decision?”
Then there’s the worst-case scenario for the Senate race recruiters: House Members foiled by redistricting who decide late in the cycle they will run for Senate and create a competitive primary.
That could be the case in either Florida, where unpredictable redistricting could push a Republican House Member into an already-crowded GOP primary to challenge Sen. Bill Nelson (D).
The same is true in Virginia, where state lawmakers are pondering major changes to the district currently held by Rep. Bobby Scott (D). Scott has not ruled out running against former Gov. Tim Kaine in the Democratic primary for Senate.
Either way, it wouldn’t be the first time a House Member made the choice to move up instead of out.
After the redistricted maps were finished in Georgia in 2002, then-Rep. Saxby Chambliss (R) found himself in a tough predicament when the Democratic-controlled Legislature moved his home into Rep. Jack Kingston’s (R) district.
Instead of facing off with his GOP colleague, Chambliss began an underdog bid against Democratic Sen. Max Cleland and eventually won with 53 percent of the vote.