Rep. Jim Gerlachs (R-Pa.) possible departure from the House to run for governor in 2010 may finally be the opening that Democrats are looking for to pick up his suburban Philadelphia seat.
Democrats have targeted Gerlach since he was first elected in 2002, but the four-term Congressman has survived, even as other Democrats on the ballot in his district win by overwhelming margins.
It goes without saying that if its an open seat, it becomes that much more attractive, knowing that its already attractive to begin with, state Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney said.
Democratic and Republican Pennsylvania operatives say they still have doubts about whether Gerlach will jump into the gubernatorial race, but sources close to him say there is a 75 percent chance that he will run governor next year.
Ill believe it when I see that Gerlach runs for governor, Pennsylvania-based Democratic consultant Larry Ceisler said. That race just isnt in the cards for him. I just dont see how it happens.
And while the chatter hasnt been that loud as people weigh how serious Gerlach really is, the possibility that he could vacate his seat still has generated some quiet buzz about who might run instead.
State Rep. Curt Schroder (R) is on often-mentioned Gerlach successor, although he did not return an immediate request for comment on the matter. Sources say Schroder has discussed a bid for Congress with Gerlach, pending whether he runs statewide.
Gerlachs former chief of staff, Guy Ciarrocchi, said he might also be interested in running for Gerlachs seat but thinks any discussions are premature. Ciarrocchi lost election to a state House seat in 2008, but his work with Gerlach and as executive director of the Bush-Cheney campaign in 2004 gives him an existing grass-roots and fundraising network.
I really think its premature, Ciarrocchi said. Ive known Jim Gerlach for 20 years, and I think hell be the Congressman in this district as long as he wants to be.
But Ciarrocchi added that if Gerlach runs for governor, hell take a bid for his seat into consideration.
Former State Party Chairman Alan Novak is also mentioned as a potential candidate and has the financial means to boost his own candidacy.
For the Democrats, Rooney said at least one potential candidate had already come forward expressing interest: Businessman Richie Phillips owns a air freight company and has long supported the state party. Phillips is also independently wealthy a major asset in the 6th district, which lies within the very expensive Philadelphia media market.
In the 2008 cycle, national Democrats struggled to find a quality recruit to run against Gerlach. They eventually settled on businessman Bob Roggio, who lost to Gerlach by a 4-point margin.
Democratic recruiting problems would no doubt change in an open-seat scenario.
If Congressman Gerlach does in fact run for governor, the challenge wont be attracting a good-quality Democrat to succeed him, Rooney said.
Local officials also mention attorney Dan Wofford as a potential candidate to run if Gerlach leaves. The son of former Sen. Harris Wofford (D-Pa.), Dan Wofford narrowly lost an open-seat bid for the seat to Gerlach in 2002.
Sources close to Wofford say hes looking at running but far from making a decision.