Drake Loss May Be Nye
Roll Call Staff
He thinks few people will vote for Obama and then Drake but that, conversely, some who vote Republican at the presidential level will be more willing to pull the lever for Democrats downballot.
“I believe you will see a significant number of people that will vote for McCain and also vote for Mark Warner and vote for me. And that will make the difference in the race,” Nye said.
Nye often invokes Warner, the popular former governor and Democratic Senate nominee who is expected to win easily, as an example of the solutions-based governing model he would follow if elected. Nye will begin airing radio ads featuring Warner this week.
But for all of Nye’s talk about his background and outreach to the military community, the outcome of the race will likely have very little to do with him.
Retiring Rep. Tom Davis (Va.), a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, knows Drake is “running against the trend, not this guy.”
Davis said he believes McCain will likely lose the district, but Drake can still weather the “Obama undertow” that he said Republican candidates face in urban districts that have a considerable black population.
“She can run ahead of the ticket,” he said. “I think she has her own base.”
Paying Attention or Skipping Downballot?
Drake’s district is 21 percent black. Virginia Beach accounts for the majority of the district, and it is the battleground that will decide the Congressional election.
Virginia Beach has long been a Republican bastion (televangelist Pat Robertson’s Christian Broadcasting Network and Regent University are based here)‚ but Gov. Tim Kaine (D) won the district in 2005 by 3 points. In 2006, then-Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) won the 2nd by the same margin over now-Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) as Drake was re-elected.
Aside from higher black turnout, the overall increased turnout in presidential years means there are less sophisticated voters showing up to the polls — especially when it comes to knowledge of other contests — which leads to an increase in straight-ticket votes.
Take for example Kyla Hurt, a gregarious 29-year-old originally from Jacksonville, Ill., who moved to Virginia Beach about five years ago.
A self-described artist, Hurt waits tables at the Cheesecake Factory in Virginia Beach as part of the 70 hours a week she works at several jobs to make ends meet.
A few years ago she was in a serious car accident. She didn’t have health insurance, and she’s still paying off hospital bills.
Hurt said she is undecided in the presidential race, but if the election were held now she would vote for Obama. She likes his calm and cool demeanor, which to her makes him seem more trustworthy.
“I just think we need change,” she said.
Still, she empathizes with McCain because of his military background and prisoner of war status. In Virginia Beach she has a lot of friends tied to the military, including her roommate, whose husband is deployed overseas.
Hurt is not typically political. She didn’t vote in the presidential primaries earlier this year. But she said there’s no question she will vote next week.
When asked about the 2nd district race she said she doesn’t know anything about Drake, and it isn’t clear what she will do on that portion of the ballot.
“I know what she looks like,” she said.
The problem for Republicans like Drake is that new voters, or voters who don’t show up to the polls consistently, will either vote a straight ticket or not vote in downballot races.
Two years ago, Drake survived a tough contest with Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam (D). She won 51 percent to 48 percent.
Current internal polling shows Drake ahead but under the 50 percent mark, and Nye is within the margin of error. At this point two years ago, public polling showed Drake in a similar position, ahead but with less than 50 percent.
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Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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