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Political insiders on both sides of the aisle are convinced that Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) is set to challenge Sen. David Vitter (R) in 2010, which begs the question of what happens in Melancons south-central district next year.
Judging by all the noise out of the National Republican Congressional Committee over the news that Melancon is considering the race, there is little doubt that the Bayou States 3rd district is about to rocket to the upper echelon of GOP targets.
Republicans have yet to unite behind one candidate, but state Rep. Nickie Monica has already said hes thinking about the race.
Other credible GOP names that have surfaced are former state Speaker Hunt Downer, who is the assistant adjutant general of the Louisiana National Guard, and Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser Jr., whose father is the former chairman of the Louisiana Republican Party.
Democrats have been less willing to come forward with possible open-seat candidates until Melancon makes a formal announcement about his Senate plans, but one name that has emerged is Ascension Parish Sheriff Jeff Wiley.
Louisiana Democratic Party Chairman Chris Whittington would say Monday only that the 3rd district is going to remain in Democratic hands in 2010 and beyond.
We have a lot of good, strong Democrats in that district should Congressman Melancon decide not to run for re-election, Whittington said.
When news broke last week about Melancons renewed Senate interest, the chest-thumping from the NRCC began in earnest.
In recent months, the NRCC had been ratcheting up the pressure on the three-term Congressman with a radio and print media campaign challenging his claims of being a fiscal conservative and criticizing him for his votes on issues such as the economic stimulus bill. In addition, the committee has continually promised to put up a well-known, well-funded challenger in 2010 regardless of whether Melancon opts to leave the House behind.
With Melancons jump to the Senate race now seen as likely, the committee believes it has an even better shot of flipping a district that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won with 61 percent in 2008.
After months of being confronted with negative ads and hostile crowds, it seems clear that Charlie Melancon has decided hed rather risk losing statewide than be defeated for re-election, NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said Monday. This is a district that has trended more conservative while Melancon has become more liberal.
The last time the 3rd district seat was open, Melancon beat the son of the districts outgoing Congressman in the closest election of the 2004 cycle. In the open primary that year, Melancon took just 24 percent of the vote to Billy Tauzin IIIs (R) 32 percent but ended up winning the runoff by 569 votes.
Monica said that in 2010 when Democrats wont have President Barack Obama on the ballot to motivate the partys base the 3rd district will revert back to GOP control.