July 30, 2014 SIGN IN | REGISTER

2010 State Races Will Shape Redraw

“Nothing we do will be more important than what happens at the ballot box in 2009 [and] 2010,” according to one House GOP aide.

One factor that Republicans have on their side looking toward redistricting, Davis argued, is that most of the states with population growth lean toward the GOP. In addition, because of the massive Democratic gains in the past two election cycles, Davis said the Democratic strategy may be more about preserving the territory that they already have rather than carving new seats.

He estimated there are only about dozen states where it might be possible to draw a Member out of office.

“Democrats have so overperformed at this point, that there’s not a lot a lot of pickup that they’re going to be able to get in redistricting outside of California,” Davis said.

Fewer Republicans in Congress also means it’s likely fewer deals will get cut. Two of the key states where incumbent protection deals were cut last time — California and Illinois — are unlikely to see similar agreements this time, and both states favor Democrats gains.

Getting Members, outside groups and others to focus at this stage can be difficult, unless it’s made clear what is really at stake, Westmoreland said.

“I don’t think it’s too early, and I think it is a big story because it will determine the next 10 years of Congress,” he said.

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