All of these numbers show a public that is more upbeat than it was before the last election, and optimism produces status quo elections, not an electorate demanding change.
The uptick in mood, combined with the public’s still-vivid memory of the disappointing Bush years, makes it almost impossible for Republicans to deliver a change argument successfully. GOP candidates and strategists will have to wait for at least another election cycle before they can hope that a change message will resonate with voters.
Of course, there are millions of Americans who are unhappy with Obama’s agenda and with the direction of the country. But those people have never liked Obama, and more importantly, they don’t come close to constituting a majority of Americans.
Most Americans — even many of those who are still worried and pessimistic — are willing to give Obama more time and to give him the benefit of the doubt.
The benefit of the doubt is exactly what voters gave President Franklin Roosevelt and his party in the 1934 midterms, when Democrats gained seats after two disastrous elections for the GOP during which the party lost a total of 150 seats in the House. Democrats gained seats for a third successive election in 1934 (nine seats) and for a fourth cycle in a row in 1936 (11 seats).
It’s not yet clear which party will gain seats in next year’s midterms or how large the swing will be. The GOP could well gain back some ground, given how far its House numbers have fallen.
But a small gain is not the standard of success that Marsh and company have set. They’ve talked about the country making a 180-degree turn after two years and following a Democratic wave for change with a Republican wave for change.
Since there is no sign of that happening, we are left with the obvious conclusion: Cantor, Gingrich and Marsh are merely cheerleading, trying to make their supporters more energetic about next year’s elections.
But cheerleading to keep enthusiasm high has a downside. It creates unreasonable expectations. Managing expectations, not creating impossible ones, is also part of the game.
Given their unbridled early cheerleading, Marsh, Cantor and Gingrich better have the legs for short skirts.
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