Minnesota officials have yet to declare a winner in the contested 2008 Senate election, but Roll Call is finally prepared to call another hotly anticipated race whose results were delayed this year: our biennial state-by-state assessment of Congressional clout.
The political uncertainty in the Gopher State was partly to blame for the delay and so was the fact that the Senate took so long to dole out some plum subcommittee assignments. But whether Democrat Al Franken or Republican Norm Coleman is ultimately declared the winner in that Senate race without end, Minnesotas ranking hardly changes at all. If Franken wins, the state is tied with Arizona for 30th in overall clout; if Coleman wins, it drops to 31st. (Frankens membership in the majority party would outweigh Colemans slightly longer tenure.)
In the end, the list for the 111th Congress looks a lot like it did at the beginning of the 110th Congress in fact, the top 10 states remain the same, only the order has changed slightly. Pennsylvania jumps from the 10th slot to the seventh, and Virginia, Maryland and Illinois each slipping one place.
Pennsylvanias rise can largely be attributed to the ascension, in the middle of 2007, of Rep. Robert Brady to the chairmanship of the House Administration Committee. Brady should like that: He doubles as the Philadelphia Democratic chairman, so he knows a thing or two about clout.
How do we put together our list? With March Madness upon us, lets just say that the selection process is every bit as scientific and clear-cut as the one NCAA officials use to determine who is going to the big dance. As we try to describe our secret sauce, were reminded of the scene from the Marx Brothers movie Duck Soup, when Groucho, as Rufus T. Firefly, leader of Freedonia, is asked if he finds a certain policy clear.
Clear? Groucho replies. Ha! Why, a
4-year-old child could understand this. Run out and find me a 4-year-old child, I cant make head or tail of it.
So as we attempt to explain it here, be sure to have a 4-year-old close by.
We give points to each state based on several factors, including:
size of the delegation
number of full committee chairmen and ranking members
number of Members on the most influential committees
top leadership posts
number of Members in the majority party
per capita federal spending received
power rating of the opponents.
Wait, that last point has something to do with the NCAA tournament we think.
From January 2007 to now, two states had the biggest movement. Oklahoma jumped from 43rd overall to 33rd, largely on the strength of Rep. Frank Lucas (R) new post as ranking member of the Agriculture Committee and Rep. Tom Coles (R) assignment on the Appropriations Committee after two years of purgatory helming the National Republican Congressional Committee.
New Mexico tumbled 10 positions, from 19th in clout at the start of the 110th Congress to 29th today. Thats hardly surprising: The Land of Enchantment lost 36 years of seniority with the retirement last year of Sen. Pete Domenici (R), and all three of the states House Members are new.