Virginia Donnybrook Set
Roll Call Staff
Sen. John Warner last week announced his decision to end his 30-year Senate career in 2008, tipping the first domino in what is expected to be a fierce open-seat battle to succeed the Virginia Republican — one that has far-reaching implications for state and national politics.
Warner’s retirement sets up an all-but-certain GOP battle between Rep. Tom Davis and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore. Among Democrats, all eyes are on popular former Gov. Mark Warner, the party’s dream candidate who would be considered the early frontrunner if he enters the race.
A decision from Mark Warner is expected to come within the next week or so, with most insiders believing the former governor will run.
Regardless of what Mark Warner does, Republicans are bracing for a nasty nomination fight.
An ideological bloodletting between Gilmore, an anti-tax conservative, and Davis, a social moderate, seems certain, though other possible Republican contenders have been mentioned. However, the method for how the party will choose its nominee will not be decided until later this fall and the choice could heavily impact the outcome of the nomination fight.
State Republicans can opt for a primary or convention and the 82-member state GOP central committee will meet in October to vote on the method.
A primary would favor Davis, who already had more than $1 million in the bank at the end of June and has a base in vote-rich Northern Virginia. The Congressman and his allies also want a primary because it would help him build name ID across the state.
But a convention, a smaller forum dominated by social conservatives and party activists, would seemingly heavily favor Gilmore. Davis has a legislative record that reflects his moderate social views, including being pro-abortion rights, and Gilmore sympathizers argue it would be almost impossible for Davis to win in a convention setting.
While almost everyone held their partisan fire Friday in deference to Warner, the Club for Growth wasted little time launching the first attack on Davis.
Gilmore’s most prominent accomplishment as governor was the near elimination of the state car tax, and the conservative anti-tax group is seen as likely to back his bid if he runs.
“Tom Davis has one of the most economically liberal records among Republicans in the House,” Club for Growth President Pat Toomey said in a statement. “Since Republican voters in Virginia are decidedly economic conservatives, it’s hard to see how Davis could win a statewide primary.”
Davis operatives argue otherwise.
“This is a guy who hasn’t lost a campaign and knows what’s required to win not only in a primary but in a convention,” said Chris LaCivita, a longtime GOP operative who is working for Davis. “I think it would be premature for people to say that Tom Davis can’t win a convention. ... He can be very competitive in a convention.”
LaCivita argued that there are portions of Davis’ voting record that will be attractive to conservatives and also laid out what is likely to be one of the Congressman’s core campaign themes: electability.
“At the end of the day, Tom Davis is the best positioned Republican to not only win a primary but to be competitive in a general election and beat Mark Warner,” he said.
Proponents of a primary argue that the statewide format produces the strongest possible nominee. But it also is a far more costly and nasty endeavor for the eventual winner.
Gilmore would be starting a Senate campaign way behind Davis in the fundraising department. The former governor made a short-lived run for the White House this year, and when he dropped out of the race in July his campaign had more debt than cash on hand.
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