Primary Peril for Members

By Shira Toeplitz
Roll Call Staff
June 26, 2008

Another one bites the dust.

With his defeat Tuesday by a fellow Republican, Rep. Chris Cannon (Utah) became the third House Member to lose his primary this cycle, following Maryland Reps. Albert Wynn (D) and Wayne Gilchrest (R) — a relatively high number given that the Congressional primary season is barely half over.

And Cannon might not be the last Member to succumb to an intraparty challenge. Reps. Don Young (R-Alaska), Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.), John Barrow (D-Ga.), William Jefferson (D-La.), Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-Mich.) and Edolphus Towns (D-N.Y.) all face credible challengers from within their own party later this summer.

Why all the internecine warfare?

Former Rep. Charles Bass (N.H.), who now runs the Republican Main Street Partnership, said the trend does not necessarily have a rhyme or reason, except that voters are just as unhappy with Congress this cycle as they were in the previous cycle.

“Some of it’s candidate-specific, but a lot of it is just general discontent on the part of the American people with the Congress as part of a continuation of 2006,” he said.

Bass said that while some of the vulnerable Members, such as Young and Jefferson, have been in Congress for a long time, others have more isolated problems.

Voters are “not picking sides in terms of partisanship,” Bass said. “They’re just picking incumbents. I wouldn’t want to be a freshman Congressman in a district with which I failed to cement an awfully good relationship.”

Enter Lamborn and Barrow, who have served one and two terms, respectively, and who are both getting competitive primary challenges.

Challenging Lamborn are two of his opponents from the bitter 2006 5th district GOP primary, including one — former House aide Jeff Crank — who almost beat him. A recent survey conducted jointly by pollsters for Lamborn’s two primary opponents showed him with a weak 34 percent re-elect number but had him 20 points ahead of his nearest competitor in the Aug. 12 primary.

Lamborn, like some of his fellow vulnerable Members, could benefit from the split primary opposition.

Meanwhile, Barrow narrowly avoided defeat in his 2006 general election and is expected to have a tough fight again this year. But before that can happen, an even bigger concern for the sophomore Congressman is the Democratic primary challenge he’s facing from state Sen. Regina Thomas, who is black.

The 12th district is about 45 percent black, meaning the primary electorate should be majority black. And if Thomas, who has served in the Georgia Legislature for more than a dozen years, can raise a sufficient amount of money and gain recognition outside of her Savannah base, she could well knock off Barrow, who is white.

Barrow has one ace in the hole, however: a recent endorsement by the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

While Barrow and Lamborn are fairly junior, most of the other vulnerable Members with primaries on their hands have been in the House for decades.

Veteran Rep. Towns is facing a spirited Democratic primary challenge from Kevin Powell, an author, community activist and “Real World” cast member.

Powell is making his youth and new ideas — he is 42, and the Congressman turns 74 later this year — a major component of his campaign.

Towns survived a primary scare in 2006 when he won a three-way contest over two elected officials with just 47 percent of the vote. Towns has his share of detractors at home, and some local insiders occasionally speculate that with unified opposition, he can be denied a 14th term.

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