Davis Savors Special Election Wins as He Ponders Future

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Back-to-back victories by Democrats in the recent Louisiana and Mississippi special House elections have bolstered the party’s expectations for the South in 2008. But the wins have also given Rep. Artur Davis (D-Ala.) an even greater nudge to consider a statewide race in 2010.

“I’m very much encouraged by what I’ve seen,” Davis said, enthusing over now-Rep. Travis Childers’ (D-Miss.) 8-point win in a previously Republican-held seat. “What the Childers win says to me is that the Republican hold is eroding in the South.”

Davis, 40, has flirted with running statewide in the Cotton State since he ousted a long-serving incumbent in a contentious Democratic primary in 2002. A strong Democratic showing in the South this cycle could pave the way for Davis, who is black, to run for governor in 2010, when incumbent Gov. Bob Riley (R) is term limited.

Davis has also been mentioned as a possible candidate for Senate, but he does not envision that happening anytime soon.

“I have no interest in running against any Republican incumbent in Alabama,” he said, dismissing a 2010 Senate bid against Sen. Richard Shelby (R). “Open seats are the key.”

Davis is co-chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program, which is charged with winning Republican-held seats, and he played a role in helping both Childers and Rep. Don Cazayoux (D), who won the special election in Louisiana earlier this month.

But Davis has also been active on the home front. He was instrumental in recruiting Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) to run for the open seat in Alabama’s 2nd district, which has been held by retiring Rep. Terry Everett (R) since 1992. He also endorsed state Sen. Parker Griffith (D) for the 5th district seat held by retiring Rep. Bud Cramer (D) in a district that voted overwhelmingly for President Bush in 2000 and 2004. Both candidates are running as anti-abortion-rights and pro-gun conservatives, which Davis said is key to winning either district.

By crossing the state from Montgomery to Huntsville to campaign for the conservative Democratic candidates, and serving as Alabama co-chairman for presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Congressman has broadened his base of support and reached out to the white voters who he would need to win over in any statewide race.

“[Davis] has built an organization that will perform,” said Natalie Davis, a pollster and political science professor at Birmingham-Southern College — and a Davis supporter. “Little by little, he’s touched across the board.”

Power of the Purse

Davis’ political action committee has collected more than $1.1 million this cycle, and he has used that money to help Democratic colleagues in swing districts outside Alabama such as Reps. Melissa Bean (Ill.), Bruce Braley (Iowa), Tim Mahoney (Fla.) and Heath Shuler (N.C.).

Obama won Alabama’s February primary with a comfortable 57 percent, earning 78 percent of the African-American vote but just 29 percent of the white vote. In a state with a population that is 70 percent white, a statewide candidate in a general election would have to garner at least 40 percent of that voting bloc, said Natalie Davis — who is no relation to the Congressman.

“I know where Artur’s head is with all this, and if all the dominoes fall in line, he thinks he can be the next governor,” she said. “I’m not so convinced yet.”

Some of that caution undoubtedly comes from watching the bruising 2006 Senate race in Tennessee between Bob Corker (R) and then-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D), who lost his attempt to become the first African-American elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction. In that race, whites broke for Corker 59 percent to 40 percent, and Corker won the election by 3 points.

“Race is a factor in any race,” Ford said. “But I’ve run statewide, and I can tell you [party] identification is the biggest issue in the South, and these special election outcomes are a good sign.”

Alabama is a conservative state that twice voted for President Bush. Republicans routinely win federal elections, though Democrats have had better success in races for state offices, and they still control both chambers of the Legislature. To win statewide, Davis would have to court conservative voters, something Alabama Republican Party spokesman Philip Bryan said is unlikely.

“He’s done a good job going around the state building name recognition, but he’s viewed here as a Washington liberal elitist and not a man of the people,” Bryan said. “He’s aligned with [Speaker] Nancy Pelosi [D-Calif.], and that won’t work here.”