Democratic gains are assured in both chambers, but a last-minute gamble by Democrats to pour money into traditionally Republican territory is likely to decide whether the GOP can maintain control of either.
While holding the House is widely viewed as a difficult prospect for the Republicans, control of the Senate is still up for grabs.
In the House, GOP strategists privately concede that a half-dozen to 10 seats are already lost. But they say the other competitive two- to three-dozen races are close — even closer than publicly available polls suggest in some cases.
Democrats, meanwhile, are working to tamp down expectations for the size of the party’s gains in the House, saying that if they do pick up the minimum 15 seats needed to win a majority, the final tally could be much smaller than is currently being forecast by most public polling and pundits.
“I think Democrats are well-positioned,” said Democratic pollster Alan Secrest. “I think it’s been so long that Democrats are eager to be cautious and right to be cautious.”
Control of the House has never flipped without the Senate changing hands as well, so party strategists are intensifying their focus on the three to five races likely to decide whether the GOP can hold onto their majority.
Democrats continue to hone in on the three contests, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, that they believe will decide whether they can pick up the six seats needed to win the majority.
New Democratic polls released Monday showed that Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) led Republican Bob Corker by 5 points in Tennessee and that in Virginia, Democrat Jim Webb led Sen. George Allen (R) by 4 points. Last week the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee purchased almost $1.4 million worth of ad time attacking Allen.
“We’re neck-and-neck,” said DSCC spokesman Phil Singer. “It’s not a foregone conclusion that we’re taking back the Senate but ... we’re within reach.”
Republican Senate losses in Pennsylvania and Ohio appear all but certain, but GOP strategists say that with a week to go, new investments of resources in the races involving embattled Sens. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) and Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) is proof that the re-election chances of neither should be written off.
Over the weekend, the National Republican Senatorial Committee went up with a $300,000 ad buy in Montana to boost Burns, who has consistently trailed state Senate President Jon Tester (D) in recent polls.
“The facts are what they are,” said NRSC spokesman Brian Nick. “We wouldn’t be spending money there if we didn’t think we could win.”
Also last week, the DSCC put $930,000 into an ad buy in Rhode Island, a sign Republicans tout as evidence that Chafee can’t be counted out in his bid against former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D).
“They wouldn’t be spending money in these states if they didn’t think they needed to,” Nick added.
From Oct. 1-18, the DSCC outspent the NRSC $22.46 million to $6.75 million. The Republican National Committee has made up the gap by investing heavily in the three “firewall” races in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.
As of Oct. 18, the NRSC had $8.9 million on hand, while the DSCC had almost $9.7 million.
Also on the battleground periphery are races in New Jersey, Michigan and Maryland, Democratic-held seats that GOP strategists continue to tout as pickup opportunities despite the poor national climate for the party.
“There are blue states that are competitive,” Nick maintained.
Singer disputed that assessment, arguing that Democrats see Sen. Bob Menendez (D) beginning to pull away from state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) in New Jersey and that Democrats have successfully branded Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) as a “Bush Republican,” an unappealing label for Democratic-leaning voters in the state.
While stem-cell research and issues of racial politics have garnered high-profile media attention in key House and Senate races over the past week, the Iraq War remains the overarching issue that Democrats believe gives them the advantage.
“Iraq is certainly the issue that is dominating these campaigns in all parts of the country,” Singer said. “It’s pretty much hardened in the public’s mind that this Republican Congress is in lockstep with the president come hell or high water.”
In the House, last week the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began new, previously unscheduled, ad buys in conservative districts held by Reps. Jim Ryun (R-Kan.) and Ron Lewis (R-Ky.). Republicans are expected to be on the air in both districts by today.
The DCCC reported spending $339,000 Thursday against Ryun, after polls showed the contest with Nancy Boyda (D) to be closer than expected. President Bush won the district by 20 points in 2004.
In New Hampshire’s 2nd district, another third-tier contest that has only recently looked competitive, both the NRCC and DCCC went on the air at the same time last week.
“They’re throwing money now at a couple of long shots and hoping they get lucky,” said NRCC spokesman Carl Forti.
DCCC spokeswoman Sarah Feinberg said that was wishful thinking on the part of the GOP, arguing it is hard to deny evidence to the contrary and that the number of pickup opportunities for Democrats has expanded as Election Day nears.
“The fact is there are more districts in play today than anyone thought possible a year ago,” she said.
Republicans have been forced to spend money to hold open seats in staunchly Republican territories in Colorado, Idaho and, to a lesser extent, Nevada.
They also have invested heavily to help save once-safe incumbents in California and Colorado, and went up on TV last week to help boost Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-Wyo.), whose re-election bid had struggled even before a recent highly publicized campaign gaffe.
Still, the NRCC is continuing to pour significant resources into two open seats that have appeared to be very difficult holds due to extenuating circumstances: ex-Rep. Tom DeLay’s (R) 22nd district in Texas and Florida’s 16th district seat of former Rep. Mark Foley (R).
A poll out Monday in the Texas race showed the race essentially tied — but Republicans’ hope still rests on voters writing in the name of Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R).
“We’ve always believed in these Republican seats,” Forti said. “We’re in a position to win both those seats.”
Republicans have invested more than $1 million to try to knock off Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa) and more than $2 million to defeat Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.), but those sums pale in comparison to the amount they have had to spend defending vulnerable incumbents this cycle.
“They don’t have the money to be playing every race where they’d like to,” Feinberg said.
The DCCC spent close to $25.8 million from Oct. 1-18 and had $17 million on hand at that point. The NRCC spent $27.4 million in the same period and had $18.3 million on hand.
GOP pollster Whit Ayers, like most Republicans acknowledged the difficult climate his party faces in one week. But referring to the Republicans’ vaunted get-out-the vote efforts, he warned against writing off the party’s chances for holding control of Congress.
“There’s a certain amount of guesswork in determining turnout,” he said. “We can make various plausible assumptions. In the final analysis no one really knows for sure who’s going to vote and who’s not.”