Parties Plot Final Strategy
Roll Call Staff
Related Content
One week before voters head to the polls to decide what analysts have already dubbed a midterm election of historic proportions, strategists in both parties are making the final spending decisions in an expanding playing field of races that will decide control of the House and Senate.
Democratic gains are assured in both chambers, but a last-minute gamble by Democrats to pour money into traditionally Republican territory is likely to decide whether the GOP can maintain control of either.
While holding the House is widely viewed as a difficult prospect for the Republicans, control of the Senate is still up for grabs.
In the House, GOP strategists privately concede that a half-dozen to 10 seats are already lost. But they say the other competitive two- to three-dozen races are close — even closer than publicly available polls suggest in some cases.
Democrats, meanwhile, are working to tamp down expectations for the size of the party’s gains in the House, saying that if they do pick up the minimum 15 seats needed to win a majority, the final tally could be much smaller than is currently being forecast by most public polling and pundits.
“I think Democrats are well-positioned,” said Democratic pollster Alan Secrest. “I think it’s been so long that Democrats are eager to be cautious and right to be cautious.”
Control of the House has never flipped without the Senate changing hands as well, so party strategists are intensifying their focus on the three to five races likely to decide whether the GOP can hold onto their majority.
Democrats continue to hone in on the three contests, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, that they believe will decide whether they can pick up the six seats needed to win the majority.
New Democratic polls released Monday showed that Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) led Republican Bob Corker by 5 points in Tennessee and that in Virginia, Democrat Jim Webb led Sen. George Allen (R) by 4 points. Last week the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee purchased almost $1.4 million worth of ad time attacking Allen.
“We’re neck-and-neck,” said DSCC spokesman Phil Singer. “It’s not a foregone conclusion that we’re taking back the Senate but ... we’re within reach.”
Republican Senate losses in Pennsylvania and Ohio appear all but certain, but GOP strategists say that with a week to go, new investments of resources in the races involving embattled Sens. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) and Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) is proof that the re-election chances of neither should be written off.
Over the weekend, the National Republican Senatorial Committee went up with a $300,000 ad buy in Montana to boost Burns, who has consistently trailed state Senate President Jon Tester (D) in recent polls.
“The facts are what they are,” said NRSC spokesman Brian Nick. “We wouldn’t be spending money there if we didn’t think we could win.”
Also last week, the DSCC put $930,000 into an ad buy in Rhode Island, a sign Republicans tout as evidence that Chafee can’t be counted out in his bid against former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D).
“They wouldn’t be spending money in these states if they didn’t think they needed to,” Nick added.
From Oct. 1-18, the DSCC outspent the NRSC $22.46 million to $6.75 million. The Republican National Committee has made up the gap by investing heavily in the three “firewall” races in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.
As of Oct. 18, the NRSC had $8.9 million on hand, while the DSCC had almost $9.7 million.
Also on the battleground periphery are races in New Jersey, Michigan and Maryland, Democratic-held seats that GOP strategists continue to tout as pickup opportunities despite the poor national climate for the party.
“There are blue states that are competitive,” Nick maintained.
Singer disputed that assessment, arguing that Democrats see Sen. Bob Menendez (D) beginning to pull away from state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) in New Jersey and that Democrats have successfully branded Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) as a “Bush Republican,” an unappealing label for Democratic-leaning voters in the state.
Chun: Cyber Attacks Demand Strong Public-Private Response
Nov. 6, 12:35 p.m.
The federal government is increasingly taking a leadership role in improving the nation’s cybersecurity. But, with a threat that is quickly growing and more sophisticated each day, it’s clear that the government — for all of its good intentions — cannot win this battle without a robust commitment from technology companies. Read Full Article
Roll Call Video Channels
