GOP Hopes Third Parties Can Sway Senate Races

• By Jamie Weinstein
• Roll Call Staff
• Oct. 31, 2006, Midnight

From Maryland to Missouri and beyond, anti-war, third-party candidates seem poised to play spoiler for Democrats in several close Senate races — and could help Republicans retain their majority.

With a half-dozen contests possibly being decided by razor-thin margins, a mere percentage point won by a third-party candidate could mean the difference between victory and defeat for the major-party candidates, and Republicans believe this is a hidden asset working to their advantage.

“The anti-war wing of the Democratic Party that propelled Howard Dean in the 2004 Democratic primary may ultimately cost them seats in this November’s election,” said Danny Diaz, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee.

Many third-party candidates argue that instead of attracting voters away from major-party candidates, their stances draw new voters to the polls. Yet, many Democrats still blame Ralph Nader’s Green Party candidacy in 2000 for Al Gore’s loss, and many Republicans still blame Ross Perot’s Independent candidacy for President George H.W. Bush’s failure to win re-election in 1992.

Democrats dismiss the threat of third-party contenders tipping close Senate elections to the GOP.

“It doesn’t appear that third-party candidates will play much of a role in this election,” said Democratic National Committee spokeswoman Stacie Paxton. “This election is more of a referendum on George Bush and the ‘do-nothing’ Congress.”

Still, a survey of some of the closest Senate races shows Republicans are more likely to benefit from the presence of third-party candidates than are the Democrats.

Nowhere is this scenario more apparent than in Missouri, where Libertarian Frank Gilmour has polled as high as 6 percent in recent surveys. These same polls have shown a very tight race between Sen. Jim Talent (R) and state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D), with both claiming the lead in certain surveys.

Although conventional wisdom suggests that Libertarians traditionally draw votes from Republicans, Gilmour supports the immediate withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and strongly opposes the USA PATRIOT Act — which means he could draw more votes away from McCaskill than Talent.

Gilmour, however, argues that his fiscal conservatism could appeal to disgruntled Republicans.

“I do not help either candidate,” he wrote in an e-mail. “I take away votes from both and that is why they are not willing to debate me.”

In the Maryland Senate race, where polls show Rep. Benjamin Cardin (D) with a narrow lead over Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R), the performance of Green Party candidate Kevin Zeese could be crucial for any chance that Steele may have to win the seat.

Most polls have shown Zeese — who has the backing of the Libertarian and Populist parties, though he will appear on the ballot only on the Green line — with 2 percent or 3 percent of the vote.

“Voters are not going to get what they want unless they vote for what they want,” Zeese said. The press secretary to Ralph Nader’s 2004 presidential campaign, Zeese called the charge that he is playing a spoiler role in the Cardin-Steele race “obnoxious.”

“Spoiling is competition,” he said.

Although Zeese, who said he is running to win, argues that he takes votes “from across the political spectrum” and that “the majority of Republicans in Maryland oppose the Iraq War,” his fervency on Iraq and his left-wing positions almost certainly make him more likely to steal more Democratic votes than Republican.

Green Party candidate Chris Lugo could play a similar role in Tennessee, where former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) and Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) are embroiled in an epic Senate battle that also is very close. Lugo has registered just 1 percent of the vote in recent polls — but that could be enough to dash Ford’s aspirations.

Still, Independent candidate Emory Heyward may counteract any impact that Lugo has. A staunch conservative who is to the right of Corker, Heyward registered more than 1 percent in at least one statewide poll. Corker has had a hard time unifying social conservatives after running as the moderate in a three-way Republican primary.

The hard-fought New Jersey race between Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) has several minor-party candidates on the ballot, though only Libertarian Len Flynn has registered above 1 percent in recent statewide polling.

Flynn, who is a strident critic of not only the Iraq War but of all interventionist U.S. foreign policy, seems more likely to take away votes from Menendez than Kean, especially because polls show the war is dominating voters’ concerns.