Whether significant Democratic gains in states such as Colorado, Nevada or Arizona could be a harbinger of the Mountain and Western regions’ growing significance beyond this November remains to be seen.

But what is certain is that Democrats are set to make inroads in what has been staunchly Republican territory for years.

“The West is very bad right now, as compared to what it normally is,” conceded one GOP consultant who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The consultant added that while Republican prospects for holding seats in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Indiana still look grim, the drop-off in this year’s GOP vote in several key Western states will be much greater than in those Eastern and Midwestern districts.

“In terms of the difference between the normal Republican performance and what we’re going to see this year, the West is the worst that we’re going to see,” the strategist said.

In recent weeks Reps. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.) and J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.) have come to look much more vulnerable than once thought and national Republicans have had to pour money into both races as they endeavor to save their 15-seat majority.

Two years ago President Bush won re-election with 54 percent of the vote in Hayworth’s district and 58 percent in Musgrave’s district. As of Tuesday, the National Republican Congressional Committee had spent a combined $2.54 million on the two races.

Democrats are also poised to pick up the governorship of Colorado, while Democratic governors in Arizona and New Mexico are cruising to re-election.

In Nevada, where Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) had been viewed as the slight favorite in the gubernatorial contest, a recent controversy has made the five-term Congressman’s prospects look a lot less certain.

A new Democratic poll released Wednesday even showed Rep. Butch Otter (R) struggling in his bid to become the next governor of Idaho. The poll showed Otter trailing newspaper publisher Jerry Brady (D), 42 percent to 40 percent.

The open seat Otter is leaving behind has turned out to be a surprisingly difficult hold for the GOP, as has a solidly Republican open seat in Colorado, after bloody GOP primaries produced battered and unpopular nominees.

“There could be some real surprises in Idaho,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Richard Stallings, who served in Congress from 1984 to 1992.

Stallings said the “Western phenomenon” that could produce positive gains for his party is the result of unease and unhappiness among fiscal conservatives and independents, who are more willing to vote for the person over the party.

Idaho’s state’s independent trend was reflected in the 1992 presidential contest, when President George H. W. Bush got 42 percent of vote, while Bill Clinton got 28 percent and Independent Ross Perot got 27 percent.

Stallings described his frustration with getting Democratic leaders to pay attention to the open Idaho House race this year, given the conventional wisdom that no state that voted 68 percent for President Bush in 2004 would be fertile ground for a competitive contest.

Stallings recalled that after state Rep. Bill Sali (R), who is not well-liked by the state Republican establishment, won the GOP primary he tried to convince national Democratic leaders that the race was winnable.

“They just sort of pooh-poohed me,” he said.

But Stallings did praise Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, who has been at odds with his party’s House and Senate campaign chiefs over spending priorities all cycle.

“I have to give a lot of credit to Howard Dean and the 50-state strategy,” Stallings said. “I think he recognized that if the party’s going to be competitive nationally they’ve got to either reach to the South or the West and I don’t see that happening in the South. The West is really the potential for growth.”

Nevada, a state Bush won narrowly in 2000 and 2004, is a prime example of how high-growth areas in the West are changing demographically and politically.

The open-seat race for Gibbons’ seat in Nevada is very competitive, with both national parties spending heavily in the closing weeks of the campaign. Bush won 57 percent of the vote there in 2004.

Meanwhile, Rep. Jon Porter (R-Nev.) represents a much more swing district that includes the fast-growing Las Vegas suburbs. He is locked in a tough re-election fight.

Democratic pollster David Beattie said the independent mindset of Western-state voters gives his party significant room to grow, in contrast to the South where politics is still largely defined by race.

“What’s happened in the West is that Republicans are seen as the party of big government right now,” Beattie said. “Republicans were getting votes from voters who were libertarians and their vote is moving away from Republicans.”

These voters aren’t necessarily ready to embrace Democratic candidates, because they don’t trust their party on taxes. But their distaste for the GOP’s spending habits is palpable nonetheless. Recent Congressional scandals and the GOP’s ethics woes hasn’t helped woo these voters either, he said.

A recent study authored by Cato Institute Executive Vice President David Boaz and America’s Future Foundation Executive Director David Kirby argued that the roughly 9 percent to 13 percent of self-described libertarians will be a key voting bloc in deciding the midterm elections.

“Libertarians are, simply put, the most important swing vote out there this year,” Boaz said.

Meanwhile, Democrats are also poised to make gains in Arizona, where they are almost certain to pick up an open seat in suburban Tucson and could add another two if Hayworth and Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) are both defeated. It came to light this week that Renzi is under federal investigation for land deals.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) may also see a closer re-election margin than may prognosticators predicted.

But the GOP strategist warned against Democrats reading too much into some of the gains they may make this year.

“There will be a bunch of places where Democrats win that they can’t hold in ’08,” the Republican said, citing the huge wave of GOP freshman elected in 1994, many of whom were toppled two years later.

Still, evidence of Democratic inroads in the western terrain has been building.

Montana elected a Democratic governor in 2004. An open seat in Colorado was the only Democratic Senate pick-up in what was otherwise a disastrous 2004 cycle for the party. Democrats also picked up a House seat in the Centennial State two years ago and took control of both chambers of the Legislature.

Strategists in both parties say it is too soon to tell what impact the 2006 Congressional results will have on the 2008 presidential contest.

“It could be that hey, they just don’t pick up that many seats. If that’s the case then, it wasn’t that big a deal,” Beattie said. “But if they pick up a lot of seats I think it has an impact on presidential races.”

Earlier this year, Democrats voted to move Nevada ahead of New Hampshire on the 2008 presidential nominating calendar, a signal that party leaders acknowledge the growing influence of western states.

The DNC may make Denver the site of the 2008 Democratic National Convention.