For Surprises, Democrats May Go West

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Nevada, a state Bush won narrowly in 2000 and 2004, is a prime example of how high-growth areas in the West are changing demographically and politically.

The open-seat race for Gibbons’ seat in Nevada is very competitive, with both national parties spending heavily in the closing weeks of the campaign. Bush won 57 percent of the vote there in 2004.

Meanwhile, Rep. Jon Porter (R-Nev.) represents a much more swing district that includes the fast-growing Las Vegas suburbs. He is locked in a tough re-election fight.

Democratic pollster David Beattie said the independent mindset of Western-state voters gives his party significant room to grow, in contrast to the South where politics is still largely defined by race.

“What’s happened in the West is that Republicans are seen as the party of big government right now,” Beattie said. “Republicans were getting votes from voters who were libertarians and their vote is moving away from Republicans.”

These voters aren’t necessarily ready to embrace Democratic candidates, because they don’t trust their party on taxes. But their distaste for the GOP’s spending habits is palpable nonetheless. Recent Congressional scandals and the GOP’s ethics woes hasn’t helped woo these voters either, he said.

A recent study authored by Cato Institute Executive Vice President David Boaz and America’s Future Foundation Executive Director David Kirby argued that the roughly 9 percent to 13 percent of self-described libertarians will be a key voting bloc in deciding the midterm elections.

“Libertarians are, simply put, the most important swing vote out there this year,” Boaz said.

Meanwhile, Democrats are also poised to make gains in Arizona, where they are almost certain to pick up an open seat in suburban Tucson and could add another two if Hayworth and Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) are both defeated. It came to light this week that Renzi is under federal investigation for land deals.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) may also see a closer re-election margin than may prognosticators predicted.

But the GOP strategist warned against Democrats reading too much into some of the gains they may make this year.

“There will be a bunch of places where Democrats win that they can’t hold in ’08,” the Republican said, citing the huge wave of GOP freshman elected in 1994, many of whom were toppled two years later.

Still, evidence of Democratic inroads in the western terrain has been building.

Montana elected a Democratic governor in 2004. An open seat in Colorado was the only Democratic Senate pick-up in what was otherwise a disastrous 2004 cycle for the party. Democrats also picked up a House seat in the Centennial State two years ago and took control of both chambers of the Legislature.

Strategists in both parties say it is too soon to tell what impact the 2006 Congressional results will have on the 2008 presidential contest.

“It could be that hey, they just don’t pick up that many seats. If that’s the case then, it wasn’t that big a deal,” Beattie said. “But if they pick up a lot of seats I think it has an impact on presidential races.”

Earlier this year, Democrats voted to move Nevada ahead of New Hampshire on the 2008 presidential nominating calendar, a signal that party leaders acknowledge the growing influence of western states.

The DNC may make Denver the site of the 2008 Democratic National Convention.