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While predictions of a Democratic wave on Nov. 7 may be overblown, Republicans are clearly on the defensive in three open seats that could prove key to their ability to retain the House majority in the 110th Congress.

Until recently, Republican-held seats in Arizona, Colorado and Iowa were seen as major battlegrounds. But now they are in serious jeopardy of going Democratic, with the 7th district in Colorado and the 1st district in Iowa, in particular, signifying the decline of the GOP brand name in the eyes of voters this cycle.

“I think districts like that are still winnable [for Republicans]. But they are definitely a bigger challenge in this environment,” said GOP strategist Dave Gilliard, who steered now-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) to a close win in a California special election earlier this year in a tough atmosphere for Republicans. “You have to latch onto local issues and catch the imagination of voters separate from the party label.”

Democrats are clearly benefiting from the decision by the GOP incumbents who hold these seats to retire from Congress. But it is telling that the Republicans running in their stead find themselves down significantly in public opinion polls to their Democratic opponents.

In the Republican-leaning, southern Arizona 8th district, Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) has been re-elected by comfortable margins 11 terms running. Yet former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) seems poised to easily dispose of former state Rep. Randy Graf (R).

The eastern Iowa 1st district and Denver-area 7th district of Colorado have repeatedly voted Democrat for president while choosing Republicans to represent them in the House. In Iowa’s 1st, voters chose Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) over President Bush by 7 points in 2004, despite their long-standing preference for Rep. Jim Nussle (R), who was elected in 1990.

To replace Nussle, however, voters appear to be favoring a Democrat, trial attorney Bruce Braley. He led wealthy businessman Mike Whalen (R) by 7 points in the latest independent poll.

Colorado’s 7th is more narrowly Democratic, giving Kerry a 3-point edge over Bush in 2004. But former state Sen. Ed Perlmutter’s (D) early and healthy lead over former state official Rick O’Donnell (R) — despite a bruising Democratic primary — indicates the GOP isn’t getting the benefit of the doubt from voters this year, as opposed to the previous two cycles, when Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) won competitive races.

Both Nussle and Beauprez are running for governor. Kolbe has not announced his future plans.

K.C. Jones, spokeswoman for the O’Donnell campaign, acknowledged that a national political environment that is difficult for Republicans has made for a tougher road for the former chairman of the Colorado Higher Education Commission. But as a veteran of Beauprez’s 2002 campaign, Jones stressed that she always figured on a come-from-behind race and is pleased with O’Donnell’s progress thus far.

“Unaffiliated voters in this district are turned off by both parties. Does that affect us right now because Republicans are in control of the White House and Congress? Yes,” Jones conceded.

Braley spokesman Jeff Giertz said a favorable national political environment is making the Democrat’s effort easier than a similar push might have been in 2002 or 2004, though he added that Braley’s policies would be highly appealing to the electorate regardless of the political atmosphere.

Presidential approval ratings hovering in the low 30s in the 1st district and a motivated Democratic base hungry for change are distinct advantages Braley has in his contest with Whalen, who could otherwise benefit from the district’s socially conservative sensibilities.

“Certainly the winds in this district are at our backs,” Giertz said. “Voters are unhappy with the policies of the Bush administration ... Being that there’s a Democratic registration advantage here, it energizes that advantage even more.”

Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, sought to downplay the difficulties Republicans face in Arizona, Colorado and Iowa, though he appeared to acknowledge in his comments the GOP is in trouble in each.

“They’re difficult seats because they’re open. It’s always harder to keep an open seat than one with an incumbent,” Forti said. “Colorado 7 and Iowa 1 are Democrat-leaning, so we’ve been swimming upstream from the get-go. But both are winnable.”

Forti said Arizona’s 8th is going to be a tough battle — the NRCC’s preferred candidate lost in the GOP primary — but cautioned not to count out Graf, calling him a “true fighter.”

The Tucson-area 8th district delivered 53 percent of its vote for Bush in 2004, and Republicans have an edge in registered voters there of approximately 20,000. But Graf has emerged as a heavy underdog to Giffords, though this appears to have little to do with national political trends and more to do with how the two candidates are viewed by voters — and party leaders.

Illegal immigration is a top issue in the Arizona race, and Graf is the candidate who has focused the most on securing the border with Mexico. But two candidates with more moderate views on the issue — the second and third place finishers — garnered more votes collectively in the primary than Graf, who challenged Kolbe in 2004 and is seen as a strident conservative regardless of whether that label is deserved.

Giffords may not be as moderate of a Democrat as she lets on. But early polling on this race suggests that 8th district voters see her as the political heir to the moderately Republican Kolbe — at least when the choice is between her and Graf. The NRCC apparently agreed, as it spent money in the Republican primary touting the campaign of Kolbe endorsee and former state Rep. Steve Huffman (R).

Earl de Berge, an independent pollster based in Phoenix, said Graf is being hurt by the perception — rightly or wrongly — that he is a hardliner, noting that he’s been getting calls from reporters in recent days asking about rumors that allege connections between the former state Representative and racist groups.

“Those are serious, and can have a hard impact on a candidate right away,” de Berge said, explaining that Graf was the Democrats’ choice because “they viewed him as an extremist candidate who would be easier to beat in a moderate swing district.”