• In Illinois’ 6th district, a poll of 400 likely voters conducted Sept. 18-20 by Goodwin Simon Victoria Research found Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth (D) in a dead heat with state Sen. Peter Roskam (R). Both candidates had 41 percent.

• In Minnesota’s 6th district, which gave President Bush a 15-point victory in 2004, state Sen. Michele Bachmann (R) led child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (D), 44 percent to 41 percent. The poll of 300 likely voters, done by the Feldman Group Inc., was taken Sept. 19-21 and had a 5.7 percent error margin.

• In Ohio’s 15th district, Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) led Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D), 43 percent to 42 percent. The Goodwin Simon Victoria Research Poll of 500 likely voters that was taken Sept. 21-24.

• In Arizona’s 8th district, former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) was trouncing ex-state Rep. Randy Graf (R) 54 percent to 29 percent in a Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal poll of 400 likely voters was taken Sept. 19-21 and had a 4.9 percent error margin.

• In a poll of Washington’s 8th district released earlier this week, Rep. Dave Reichert (R) led former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D), 44 percent to 43 percent. The poll of 400 registered voters was taken Sept. 18-21 and had a 4.9 percent margin of error.

Ellen Malcolm, president of EMILY’s List, which supports Democratic women candidates who favor abortion rights, said that 14 women have a chance of winning Republican-held House seats in November.
— Josh Kurtz

Democratic Ads Using Iraq Intelligence Report

Democratic Congressional candidates are leaping on the air to attack their Republican opponents for supporting President Bush’s policies in Iraq, just days after parts of a leaked National Intelligence Estimate indicated the Iraq War has worsened the terrorism threat.

Connecticut state Sen. Chris Murphy (D) aired a new television ad Wednesday attacking his opponent, Rep. Nancy Johnson (R), for supporting “President Bush’s war in Iraq.”

Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said another candidate has produced ads related to the NIE and several others are in the works, signaling Democrats expect to use the leaked intelligence briefing to tear down Republicans’ national security credentials before the midterm elections.

At a news conference Wednesday, DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) challenged Republicans to distance themselves from Bush’s dismissal of the NIE.

Schumer said the week’s events provide rosy news for Democrats looking to take control of Congress.

“It’s been a bad week for George Bush. It’s been a bad week for Republican candidates,” Schumer said. “We are feeling very, very good about our chances. The numbers keep getting better and better and better in every part of the country.”
— Jeffrey Patch

Kerry Sending Troops to 20 Battleground States

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) continues to tap his three-million-strong e-mail list to boost Democratic efforts to win control of Congress.

Kerry recently penned a series of letters to supporters of his 2004 presidential bid seeking volunteers to work on coordinated campaigns in 20 states.

In less than a week, 5,000 volunteers have signed up, according to Kerry aides.

Volunteers will be deployed to work on behalf of the entire Democratic slate in the following states: Florida, Minnesota, Washington, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, New Jersey, Vermont, Wisconsin, Maine, Montana, Virginia, Ohio, South Carolina, Massachusetts and Nevada.
— Nicole Duran

KENTUCKY
Democratic Poll Shows Weaver Gains on Lewis

Rep. Ron Lewis (R) led his challenger by 8 points in a new Democratic poll released Wednesday. But the pollster for state Rep. Mike Weaver (D) said the challenger is now “within striking distance” of the seven-term incumbent.

In the poll of 400 likely voters, conducted Sept. 22-25 by Hamilton Beattie & Staff, Lewis got 50 percent and Weaver got 42 percent. The survey had a 4.9 percent margin of error. But a poll for Weaver taken six weeks earlier showed Lewis ahead 55 percent to 38 percent.

The 2nd district, which includes Owensboro and Bowling Green, has become a Republican stronghold in federal elections. President Bush took 65 percent of the vote there in 2004. But national Democrats believe Weaver, a retired Army colonel and Vietnam veteran, has the right profile to do well there.

“Over the last month, Colonel Weaver’s campaign has done a remarkable job of solidifying support among the district’s conservative Democrats, and has started to cause doubts about Lewis with Republicans,” the polling memo says. “The fact that Lewis’s support has peeled off so quickly is an indication that his support is weak and that voters view Colonel Weaver as a viable alternative.”
— J.K.

<>Democrat Says Numbers Explain Northup Attacks

Just a few days after Rep. Anne Northup (R) announced her intention to try to bludgeon her Democratic challenger with controversial newspaper columns he has written in the past, the Democrat, John Yarmuth, has released a month-old poll showing that their race, at the time at least, was tied.

The poll, the Democrat’s camp contends, explains Northup’s decision to launch the attacks on Yarmuth.

The poll of 566 likely voters, taken Aug. 22-23 by Cooper & Secrest Associates Inc., showed Northup with 46 percent and Yarmuth, the former publisher of an alternative newspaper, with 45 percent. It had a 4.4 percent error margin.

Pollster Alan Secrest noted that the race was tied even, though Northup was better known than Yarmuth by 31 points, 98 percent to 67 percent.

The Louisville-based district leans Democratic, but Northup has held it since 1996. But Secrest argued that Yarmuth’s path to victory is clear.

“Let’s not outthink ourselves,” he wrote. “Anne Northup’s mythmaking machine is getting creakier and her accusations wilder and more desperate. This one’s going to the wire.”
— J.K.

OHIO
Feingold’s PAC Decides to Add Brown to Its List

Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) will get a fundraising boost from Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) in his bid to unseat Sen. Mike DeWine (R).

Feingold’s leadership political action committee, the Progressive Patriots Fund, has held online elections all cycle to select candidates Feingold supporters want to help.

Brown will benefit from a fundraising e-mail sent on his behalf to the fund’s entire list.

According to a news release, more than 13,000 people voted in the round won by Brown.

“I am happy to continue to support a great candidate for Senate, Sherrod Brown,” Feingold said. “We’ve contributed to his campaign, sent him a field staffer through our Patriot Corps program and are glad to continue to do all we can to help.”

Feingold’s PAC endorsed five other Democratic challengers earlier in the election cycle.
— N.D.

NEBRASKA
‘Old McDonald,’ With Twist, in Ricketts’ Ad

Republican Senate nominee Pete Ricketts has gone on the offensive, charging in a new television ad that Sen. Ben Nelson (D) owes more than $10,000 in back property taxes after “fraudulently” claiming an exempt status that was disputed by a county tax assessor.

Parodying the song “Old McDonald Had a Farm,” the 30-second spot, running on statewide television, accuses Nelson of claiming a “greenbelt” exemption for farming, which the ad claims was later revoked on the grounds that the Senator didn’t farm on the land in question.

“He had a tax break here he had a tax break there, he avoided taxes on land he didn’t farm,” the ad’s voice-over sings, to the tune of “Old McDonald.”

A Ricketts campaign aide said this particular ad is running “at lower gross ratings points than any of our other ads.”

The Nelson campaign attempted to refute the contentions that Ricketts makes in the ad, saying the fact that the Republican is running an ad focused on the Senator is indicative of the uphill climb he faces in Republican- leaning Nebraska.

“Ben Nelson has paid all of his taxes,” Nelson campaign spokeswoman Marcia Cady said Wednesday. “This is just a mean-spirited attack that will turn Nebraska voters off — they already don’t like [Ricketts] because of his crazy ideas, like privatizing Social Security and [implementing] a national sales tax.”
— David M. Drucker

NEW JERSEY
Kean’s New Radio Ad Highlights Lease Deal

After leaving Sen. Bob Menendez (D) free to dig his own hole following revelations that a federally funded community group for years rented space in a building he used to own, state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) this week began piling on with a radio spot alleging the Senator is corrupt.

The one-minute spot — the second Kean radio ad unveiled this week — features a “man and woman on the street” talking about Menendez’s relationship with the North Hudson Community Action Corp., the community group that was once his tenant.

Woman: The news reports are troubling.

Man: Bob Menendez. Under federal criminal investigation.

Woman: Steering over $9 million dollars from the federal treasury to a Hudson County group. Pocketing over $320,000 ... for himself.

Man: Bob Menendez. Under federal criminal investigation.

Woman: Abusing the power of his office to personally enrich himself with our tax dollars. No wonder The New York Times says Menendez “does not represent a clean slate.”

The ad continues in similar fashion, ending with the woman saying: “Are you tired of corrupt politicians like Menendez abusing their office to pad their pockets with our tax dollars? Elect a Senator New Jersey can be proud of. Vote Kean. The independent reformer that will give New Jersey a fresh start.”

The ad is scheduled to run on two Philadelphia radio stations and on one in New York, and will be rotated with a series of ads that feature Democrats talking about why they intend to vote for Kean on Nov. 7. The Kean campaign declined to discuss the specifics of the latest ad buy, but described it as “significant.”
— D.M.D.

MICHIGAN
GOP Luminaries Help Sheriff With Fundraising

Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) continues to tap national GOP figures in his effort to amass a war chest to rival that of Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D).

Bouchard is visiting Washington, D.C., this week to make the rounds and pick up some checks.

Wednesday morning former Sen. Spencer Abraham (R-Mich.) — who would like nothing more than to see Bouchard avenge his narrow 2000 loss to Stabenow — hosted a breakfast fundraiser for the lawman. A number of Republican Senators attended, including National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley (Iowa).

Following up on recent visits to the Great Lakes State by President Bush and Vice President Cheney that raked in more than $1 million for Bouchard, more GOP luminaries will head to Michigan next month.

On Oct. 4, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will headline an event, followed by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) on Oct. 10, and what the NRSC has dubbed “the magnificent seven” on Oct. 11.

Republicans conferred the moniker upon the GOP’s freshman Senate class, which it is sending on the campaign trail to bolster this cycle’s most promising Republican Senate challenger candidates.
— N.D.

NEW YORK
Highly Touted Gillibrand in DNC Spotlight Today

Attorney Kirsten Gillibrand (D) continues to get the star treatment from national Democrats in her challenge to four-term Rep. John Sweeney (R).

Gillibrand is scheduled to be one of three speakers today at a Democratic National Committee Women’s Forum luncheon at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C. Also on the program: DNC Chairman Howard Dean and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).

On Oct. 5, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is headlining a fundraiser for Gillibrand at a Manhattan apartment. The high-dollar fundraiser, first reported by the Albany Times-Union, should renew Republican cries that Gillibrand — who grew up in the Upstate 20th district but just moved back there two years ago — is really a Manhattan liberal in disguise.
— J.K.

Kuhl Retains Slim Lead in Latest Massa Poll

Retired Navy Cmdr. Eric Massa (D) remains in striking distance of freshman Rep. Randy Kuhl (R), according to a new poll conducted for Massa’s campaign.

The poll of 503 likely voters, done Sept. 19-21 by Cooper & Secrest Associates Inc., found Kuhl the choice of 43 percent of those surveyed and Massa the choice of 39 percent. It had a 4.4 percent error margin.

In a memo, pollster Alan Secrest predicted that Massa will win if he can become better known to the voters in the Southern Tier district.

“It all boils down to 4-5 weeks of fundraising,” he wrote.
— J.K.

PENNSYLVANIA
Second GOP Poll Shows Gerlach Holding Steady

While Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) remains high on Democrats’ target list, a new poll conducted for his campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee showed him continuing to hold a substantial lead in his rematch with attorney Lois Murphy (D).

A GOP poll two weeks ago found similar results.

In the Public Opinion Strategies poll of 400 likely voters taken Sept. 25-26, Gerlach had 51 percent and Murphy had 39 percent. The survey had a 4.9 percent error margin.

In their 2004 contest, Gerlach barely edged Murphy, 51 percent to 49 percent.

In a memo, pollster Neil Newhouse suggested that GOP attacks portraying Murphy as a liberal seem to be having some effect in the suburban Philadelphia district.

“Gerlach remains in good position to hold this seat, but we need to be ready for the onslaught of Murphy’s negative attacks,” he wrote.
— J.K.

NORTH CAROLINA
Kissell Wins DCCC’s Grass-roots Contest

Larry Kissell (D), who is challenging Rep. Robin Hayes (R), is getting some personal fundraising help from Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), after the textile-worker-turned-teacher won a recent DCCC-sponsored contest aimed at generating grass-roots support.

A national fundraising letter signed by Emanuel will go out to donors tomorrow touting Kissell’s candidacy. The letter is a result of Kissell winning a DCCC contest in which challenger candidates competed to recruit as many volunteers as possible for their campaign in one day. Kissell won overwhelmingly, signing up almost 1,000 volunteers in the Charlotte-area 8th district.

“I was not surprised to hear that Larry Kissell was our Action for a New Direction Day winning candidate,” Emanuel wrote in the fundraising letter. “Larry’s campaign recruited almost 1,000 volunteers in one day — anybody who can see that is a true grassroots candidate. He has taken his message of change to the streets of North Carolina’s 8th congressional district and they have responded in overwhelming numbers.”

Kissell was recently named to the DCCC’s “emerging races” list, but his battle against Hayes is still viewed as uphill. As of June 30, Kissell had just $84,000 in his campaign account compared to Hayes’ $1.2 million. The third-quarter fundraising period ends Saturday.

Kissell is running an ad on country radio stations in the district that features a song titled “Country Back.”

“This seat is winnable — this congressional district is one of the highest Democratic performing districts in the south currently held by a Republican; we need to bring this seat home,” Emanuel begs donors in the letter.
— Lauren W. Whittington