‘Draft Breaux’ Gathers Steam
Jindal, Vitter Eye Blanco
Roll Call Staff
As a House committee marked up the final version of the Hurricane Katrina report Wednesday on Capitol Hill, there was growing concern among Louisiana Democrats over the viability of Gov. Kathleen Blanco’s (D) political future and whether the party can find another candidate to coalesce behind before the 2007 gubernatorial election.
The first evidence of that movement became public this week, as pressure began to mount on former Sen. John Breaux (D) to consider re-entering political life and running for governor next year. There is little question that Breaux, who retired from the Senate in 2004 and remains widely popular back home, would be difficult to beat if he runs. However, many veteran Bayou State politicos remain doubtful that he has the desire to get back in the game.
A local Louisiana newspaper reported Wednesday that state Agriculture Commissioner Bob Odom (D) said that he is among those leading an effort to convince Breaux to run.
A spokesman for Breaux, who is now a lobbyist with Patton Boggs, declined to comment on those efforts.
But privately, there is much debate in Democratic circles about whether Blanco has been so crippled by her administration’s handling of the response to Hurricane Katrina that she can not stand for re-election, which she has vowed to do.
“There’s no question that people are looking internally inside the state to see if there is someone else,” said one Democratic strategist familiar with state politics. “She’s in a lot of hot water.”
The strategist also suggested that pressure will only continue to mount for Breaux to heed the calls of a party and state in need.
“John Breaux has to be on the table,” the source said. “I think it’s going to be hard, he’s got a home out on the Eastern Shore, he’s doing well financially, but everyone thrusts and hungers for that moment when they can go back and be a true hero, and I believe John will hear this calling and come home if the situation arises.”
Some of the pressure for Democrats to find a consensus alternative to Blanco is being fueled by the behind-the-scenes machinations of Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-La.), who narrowly lost to Blanco in a 2003 runoff and is preparing for another run next year.
Blanco beat Jindal 52 percent to 48 percent in the 2003 runoff.
Although Jindal was elected to the House in 2004, confidants say that his desire to be governor has not waned and he has already quietly begun lining up support for the race.
“The chances are very good that he’s going to do it no matter who else does,” according to a source close to Jindal.
However, the 34-year-old Congressman is not the only Member in the state’s GOP delegation that has an eye on moving on to the governor’s mansion in Baton Rouge.
Sen. David Vitter (R-La.), who was elected to the Senate in 2004, is also interested in a gubernatorial run, and a GOP source cautioned that Vitter “should not be counted out” of the 2007 race.
“People who make the assumption that David Vitter is not looking at the governor’s race are just dead wrong,” the source said.
The source predicted that Vitter would make a decision on a gubernatorial campaign by “late April or early May” of this year.
Vitter flirted with running for governor in 2003, but decided not to.
Meanwhile, those in Jindal’s camp are quick to note that he deferred to Vitter in the 2004 Senate race, even though Jindal was fresh off a narrow statewide loss. That won’t happen again this time, they warn.
Jindal supporters argue that Vitter’s success in 2004 derived from the fact that Republicans coalesced behind him instead of running multiple candidates in the all-party November primary.
“The party finally figured out a formula that works in ’04, which is to have one candidate,” the source close to Jindal said.
Democrats are keenly aware of the success of that strategy as well, as they see Blanco’s re-election numbers currently hovering somewhere around 25 percent. In addition, her political base in the southern part of the state was the area most ravaged by Katrina, and it is unclear how many of the voters in that area will return to the state.
Still, much doubt remains among veteran Louisiana Democrats that Breaux would ultimately be convinced to leave his home and work in the Washington, D.C., area.
“If John Breaux should run, I think he would be elected and everybody would be for him, there’s no doubt about that,” said former Sen. J. Bennett Johnston (D-La.), who is also now a Washington, D.C., lobbyist. “He doesn’t need to give a Sherman[esque] statement right at this moment, but I don’t think there’s a very big chance that you would get him to run.”
There are other Democrats looking at the race as well.
Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D) has recently said that he will challenge New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin (D) in the municipal election. However, there is still some speculation that Landrieu could ultimately be enticed to run for governor instead next year.
Former Rep. Chris John (D-La.), who lost to Vitter in the 2004 Senate contest, said in an interview Wednesday that he is keeping his options open and wouldn’t rule out another run for statewide office in 2007.
“I’m not making any concrete plans,” he said.
Other Democrats mentioned include: Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, Shaw Group chief executive Jim Bernhard, a former state party chairman, and state Treasurer John Kennedy.
John predicted that the anger of the state’s residents over the handling of Katrina is likely only to be settled at the polls, in the elections this year and next.
“I’ve never seen the political landscape so much in flux as it is today,” John said.
He also cited Breaux’s reputation as a consensus builder as the primary reason why Democrats would turn to him first.
“Breaux is a person who people think can pull the Republicans the Democrats and Washington together to try to get [the rebuilding] done,” said John. “That’s just a natural gravitation I would think because there’s no one else like Sen. Breaux out there that has that qualifications.”
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