2006 Isn’t Like 1994 Because the Democrats Are Too Far Left
Roll Call Contributing Writer
It appears the Democrats think the 2006 Congressional elections are all but over. They’ve already announced their “to do” list for their first week back in the majority, and, no doubt, they’ve already picked out their parking spaces, all the while sending their base a regular “wink and nod” message: “A vote for Democrats in 2006 is a vote for impeachment in 2007.”
Democratic leaders deny it, of course, saying they only want to “investigate Republican corruption.” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) let slip their real intentions to The Washington Post, saying, “You never know where it leads to.”
Behind the Democrats’ hubris is the growing buzz around Washington, D.C., that “it’s 1994 all over again,” only this time, it will be Republicans thrown out on their collective ears. It isn’t.
That’s not to say this isn’t going to be a tough, competitive year. Republicans are facing a strong challenge that shouldn’t be underestimated, but the political dynamics of this election are not the mirror image of 1994, as Democrats would like us to believe.
The antics of Reps. Cynthia McKinney (D-Ga.) and Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.) coupled with the ethical cloud now hanging over Reps. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) and William Jefferson (D-La.) and even Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) make it difficult, if not impossible, to take seriously the “corruption” diatribes we hear regularly from top Capitol Hill Democrats.
But despite what are admittedly grim poll numbers for Republicans, Democrats know that there is another dynamic that could well be a more decisive factor in the fall election: the disconnect between the center-left ideology of the Democratic Party and the center-right ideology of the electorate.
In 1994, when the Democrats were in control, the country and its center-right electorate were being governed by a left-center party. Until then, Democrats held the majority through hardball gerrymandering and delivering solutions to voter concerns.
Along with scandal, what cost them the majority in 1994 was voters’ lack of confidence in Democratic solutions, exemplified by then-first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton’s health care plan. When Democrats didn’t deliver what voters wanted, it sparked a realignment, with the electorate finally moving to where it should have been for years — to a center-right party.
Then-Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) won the battle for control not because he offered voters a center-right ideology but because he backed up his party’s conservative philosophy with center-right solutions. These were not overnight ideas crafted as campaign messages but rather long-standing proposals that coalesced into the “Contract with America.”
Today, Republicans must solve problems, too, but they are governing in a different environment. Voters may be unhappy at the moment, but they have not left the center-right ideological camp. This gives Republicans good ground from which to battle back.
In a recent New Models survey, we asked voters to place Democrats, Republicans and themselves on a nine-point ideological scale with one being “very liberal” and nine “very conservative.”
Of those tested, voters perceived Howard Dean as the most liberal at 3.7. They gave the Democratic Party a 3.9 rating. Both President Bush and the Republican Party got a 6.6 rating.
The numbers take on real meaning, however, when put in the context of how voters see themselves ideologically. On average, voters put their own political ideology at 5.7 — clearly center-right, and within less than a point of the GOP. The voters’ perception of Democrats, on the other hand, was significantly to their left.
What this says is that Democrats are not what the electorate is looking for. And clearly, Democrats are not making any serious attempt to be what voters want. Unlike Republicans in ’94, they aren’t offering a center-left “contract” to sway voters because they understand that voters would reject that kind of legislative liberal agenda.
Because Democrats can’t win, as Republicans did in 1994, on the basis of their ideology and ideas, they have instead adopted a “shutdown Congress” strategy to ensure that nothing gets done. This, they hope, will create a public perception that Republicans cannot solve problems.
It’s a little like a game of 52-card pickup. Throw everything in the air, bring Congressional business to a halt and hope that voters take out their anger on the folks in charge.
The polls tell us that Democrats, so far, have been successful in selling their particularly cynical brand of snake oil to the public in the past year. But what should not be forgotten is that Republicans still have a natural majority coalition.
Voters have much more in common with Republican ideas and principles, and that connection can’t be underestimated. It also can’t be taken for granted.
While unhappy, voters aren’t yet ready to realign themselves with Democrats, giving the GOP a window of opportunity to move aggressively to retain control. But doing so will require a unity of purpose and message.
Republicans must break the Democrats’ shutdown Congress strategy — much as former President Bill Clinton did in ’95 and ’96 — and push their center-right agenda. To be successful, they also must do a better job of exposing Hill Democrats as the obstructionists they have continued to be, unwilling to seriously participate in the legislative process.
Whether it is border security, immigration, prescription drugs, drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge or building more refineries to help ease gas prices down the road, the Democratic leadership has decided it would rather play 52-card pickup than help solve the nation’s most crucial problems
For Republicans, the opportunity to retain control is there because ideology and the issues are on their side. Time is not. Voters don’t understand where the blame should lie, and they need to — soon.
David Winston is president of The Winston Group, a Republican polling firm.
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