Dino Rossi: Sore Loser Or Brilliant Tactician? History Will Judge

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When Dino Rossi first narrowly won — and then narrowly lost — his race for governor of Washington last fall, he had a choice to make.

Rossi, a Republican, could have smiled, congratulated the 129-vote winner, Democrat Christine Gregoire, and quietly plotted his political comeback.

If Rossi had taken that path, he would have followed a trail blazed by then-Reps. John Ensign (R-Nev.) and John Thune (R-S.D.) and then-Sen. John Ashcroft (R-Mo.). Each of them lost a painfully close Senate contest but decided against a potentially divisive court challenge. Instead, each found vindication: Ensign and Thune won Senate bids two years after their losses, and Ashcroft was named U.S. attorney general within months of his.

Rossi would have been well-placed to parlay his impressive gubernatorial showing (Gregoire had been the favorite throughout the campaign) into an aggressive 2006 challenge against Sen. Maria Cantwell, a Democrat who won her seat in 2000 by a mere 2,200 votes.

But Rossi bucked recent history. Rather than lay the groundwork for a Senate bid, he filed a lawsuit to overturn the gubernatorial hand recount that gave Gregoire the governor’s seat after Rossi had won in two earlier counts by 261 and 42 votes. Rossi and his attorneys allege systematic voting irregularities in King County, the populous Democratic bastion that includes Seattle. The trial began Monday in more rural (and more Republican) Chelan County.

If Rossi prevails in his lawsuit, then the governorship will be declared vacant and a special election will be called for November.

But if Rossi loses — and even if he doesn’t — his strategy of prolonging an already contentious campaign could make him look like a sore loser to many Washington state voters. And if that were to happen, Rossi could damage his appeal to the crossover Democrats and independents he’ll need to court if he harbors future statewide political ambitions.

At least that’s the concern raised by politicos who witnessed similar scenarios unfold in South Dakota, Nevada and Missouri in the past six years.

Voters Dislike Bad Sports

In South Dakota, Thune could have easily contested his 524-vote loss to Sen. Tim Johnson (D) in 2002 because it

came amid allegations of vote fraud on Indian reservations, which traditionally support Democrats.

But “South Dakotans do not like poor losers,” said Robert Miller, executive director of the South Dakota Electric Utility Companies. “If Thune had launched a court challenge, his South Dakota rating would have fallen way off. And if he had won the court challenge, I believe he would have set himself up for a defeat in the next election.”

Todd Epp, an attorney and Democratic activist in Sioux Falls, agreed that Thune’s actions “put himself in the good graces of South Dakota voters.” If anything, Epp notes, then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) — the man Thune defeated in 2004 — may have squandered goodwill when he sought and won a minor court victory over election procedure on the eve of the 2004 election.

In Nevada, where John Ensign lost by 428 votes to current Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D) in 1998, politicos say Ensign, too, did everything right to maintain positive feelings among voters.

“There was the usual swarming of national Republican operatives to help him challenge the results, and he pushed it as far as he could — up to the point where he would only look petulant,” said Jon Ralston, who publishes a newsletter on Nevada politics. “Eventually, it became clear to him that there was no upside to continuing to push.”

Ashcroft’s dilemma may have been diciest of all. In 2000, he lost to the late Gov. Mel Carnahan (D), 22 days after Carnahan died in a plane crash. Though Carnahan’s margin of victory was roughly 49,000 votes, allegations of voting irregularities in St. Louis led many Republicans to urge a challenge by Ashcroft. He declined.

Terry Jones, a political scientist at the University of Missouri at St. Louis, said Ashcroft’s decision was both gracious and prudent, given the widespread sympathy for the Carnahan family.

Moreover, Ashcroft “lost by 2 percentage points, so there was no doubt about the outcome,” Jones said. “To challenge would be to accuse the majority of voters of being wrong.”

But how relevant are these prior examples for Rossi? Analysts who have followed the back-and-forth in Washington state are ambivalent.

Risks and Potential Rewards

On the one hand, most agree that Rossi has assumed some political risk by pursuing his judicial challenge.

True, Rossi and his team tout polls, conducted by a Republican firm, showing that 56 percent of Washington state residents think Rossi should have been declared the winner, compared to just 36 for Gregoire. But at some point, experts say, theory has to begin to clash with reality.