Fla. Pols Wait on Graham
Roll Call Staff
With Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.) looking more like a presidential candidate than a candidate for re-election, a handful of anxious would-be contenders are awaiting his decision before proceeding with plans to run for the seat next year.
Graham, a popular former governor who has held elected office in the Sunshine State since 1966, would be heavily favored to win a fourth term if he seeks re-election. However, if he tosses his hat into the crowded presidential ring, a highly competitive fight to replace him would be assured in the battleground state that took center stage in the 2000 presidential election.
"If I don’t run for the Senate and that is an open seat there will be a lot of people, a lot of Democrats as well as Republicans, looking at it," Graham said last week, adding that he thinks Democrats would be able to hold the seat.
Although both Florida Senators are Democrats — Sen. Bill Nelson (D) won the seat of a retiring Republican in 2000 — the GOP has become an increasingly dominant force in the state. The party now holds the governor’s office and controls the state Legislature, as well as the state Cabinet and nearly three-quarters of the Congressional delegation.
National GOP strategists smell a ripe pick-up opportunity if Graham’s seat becomes open in a presidential election year. Under Florida law, Graham is prohibited from running for both offices.
So far, Rep. Mark Foley (R), who had $1.8 million in the bank on Nov. 25, 2002, has made the most noise of the potential candidates who would run for the seat. While he has not formed an exploratory committee, Foley has been traveling the state gauging support for a run.
"I’ve been going around the state for the last four and a half years trying to build a network, so I’ve got a little bit of a head start," Foley said in a recent interview. "The soundings have been good. The meetings have been great, and I’ve been able to promote the agenda that I’ve been working on anyway in the Congress, so it hasn’t been a waste of energy."
Foley said he may run regardless of what Graham decides to do.
"That’s a much more difficult race," Foley conceded. "I don’t kid myself. He’s popular in Florida and would make it much more difficult."
But if Graham doesn’t run for the Senate, Foley is likely to face a crowded primary.
Among the GOP candidates most often mentioned are former Rep. Bill McCollum (Fla.), state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez and Tom Gallagher, formerly the state insurance commissioner.
Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan (R) had also been eyeing a run for governor or Senate, but last week he signaled his interest in becoming president of Florida Atlantic University and took his name out of contention.
Byrd, who recently became speaker after just six years in the Legislature, has indicated he might challenge Graham, should the incumbent choose to stay.
McCollum, a Clinton impeachment trial manager who retired from the House and was handily defeated by Nelson in 2000, said he is being encouraged to mount a comeback if Graham does not run.
"I’ve stayed prepared for the possibility that he might retire this time," McCollum said Friday, indicating that he would be able to quickly reassemble his 2000 campaign apparatus.
Still, his decision hinges on Graham’s announcement. "I’m not going to put the horse before the cart," he said.
Gallagher and Martinez, who represent the more moderate wing of the party, are widely viewed as would-be candidates for governor in 2006. Party leaders could forge a deal between them in an effort to get one to opt into an open Senate race.
Newly elected state Attorney General Charlie Crist, Rep. Cliff Stearns and freshly minted Rep. Katherine Harris have also been mentioned as GOP candidates.
A spokesman for the Florida Republican Party declined to speculate at all about the potential 2004 field.
"There’s just so many ifs and maybes, we’re staying completely out of it," said Towson Fraser.
Meanwhile, as Democrats also anxiously await Graham’s decision, the names of a few possible candidates are being quietly mentioned.
"I think the names that have been tossed around since Graham’s initial floating of his run for the presidency have given us a good bench to work from," said Florida Democratic Party Executive Director Ana Cruz.
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