NRCC Has Mixed Results on Recruiting Front

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If House Republicans want to win back the majority next Congress, their primary targets will likely be freshman Democrats.

And with the first candidate filing deadline two months away, the National Republican Congressional Committee has had some success in recruiting candidates to run against almost two dozen first-term Democrats in competitive districts.

According to a Roll Call analysis, the NRCC has successfully recruited 10 top-tier challengers to freshman Democrats in 2010. But the committee has also suffered several setbacks, including failing so far to recruit their best candidates in at least seven House districts represented by Democratic freshmen.

What’s more, it appears the numbers might not be in their favor. There are only 14 freshman Democrats representing districts that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won in 2008’s presidential election. And with NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (Texas) looking to target 80 races this cycle — twice as many as he needs to win to get his party back to the majority — Republicans have a difficult recruitment challenge ahead of them.

The Good

In Alabama’s 2nd district, the NRCC can count Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R) as a successful recruitment story. Roby is her party’s top choice for defeating freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D) and was courted early on in the cycle by Sessions and the NRCC.

Roby acknowledged in her May announcement that she was working with state and national GOP officials to clear the Republican field, and their work paid off when wealthy state Rep. Jay Love, the 2008 nominee, decided not to run again.

At just 33 years old, Roby is a solid conservative in a district that went for McCain by 26 points in the presidential election. She has also proved to be an impressive fundraiser, bringing in more than $125,000 in the first six weeks of her campaign. The only knock on Roby so far appears to be the simple fact that she’s still unknown outside her small corner of Montgomery.

It appears some of Republicans’ best recruits against freshman Democrats include some familiar names, as several former Members have announced bids for their old seats. And although former Members often come with political baggage, House Republicans see ex-Reps. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.) and Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) as their best bets in their respective districts, given their name identifications and fundraising networks.

Pearce relinquished his House seat to run for Senate in 2008 but lost the general election. Now he is trying to recapture his former House seat from his friend, freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D), who won his first term with relative ease.

Chabot was one of the first Republicans to announce his bid for his former seat. Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) defeated Chabot in the previous cycle when an increase in black turnout in Cincinnati with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket boosted his campaign. Chabot raised almost as much as the incumbent for his bid through the end of June.

And while the face might not be familiar, voters in Illinois’ 14th district know attorney Ethan Hastert’s (R) name. He is the son of former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R), and Republicans are optimistic that he’ll be a top-tier challenger to Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.). Foster won a special election to replace the elder Hastert in 2008, and Republicans believe they can take the seat back with a stronger candidate.

In Maryland, state Sen. Andy Harris (R) is another top recruit, but the NRCC won’t be truly successful in that district until it can be determined whether Harris will face a serious primary challenge next year. State Sen. E.J. Pipkin (R), who traded blows with Harris in a messy three-way primary in 2008, is once again contemplating a House bid. Clearing the field for Harris will certainly go a long way in helping Republicans regain the conservative 1st district now held by freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil (D).

The Bad

Democratic freshman Rep. Larry Kissell’s (N.C.) district has been a political battleground for most of the past decade. After narrowly losing his 2006 race to then-Rep. Robin Hayes (R), Kissell returned in 2008 to finish the job.

Although Hayes lost by 10 points in November, many Republicans believed that the former Congressman, who was listed as one of the wealthiest Members during his tenure on Capitol Hill, might try to reclaim his old seat.

Besides Hayes, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who made a serious gubernatorial bid in 2008, and former Carolina Panthers star safety Mike Minter, were two other well-known Republicans who had expressed an early interest in the race.

But Minter took himself out of consideration in May, and then in mid-August McCrory and Hayes passed on the race in the same week.

Suddenly the party is without any of its big-name candidates in the district, and Army veteran Lou Huddleston, who is coming off a failed state House bid in 2008, has become the Republicans’ best hope for the moment. But the recent presence in the district of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), the NRCC’s recruiting chairman, is a sure sign that the committee recognizes it has more work to do there.