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4th district
Open seat: Jim McCrery (R)
is retiring
Outlook: Tossup
Physician John Fleming and trucking executive Chris Gorman emerged from the very close Oct. 4 Republican primary and will square off in a runoff on Election Day. Fleming took 35 percent of the vote to Gorman’s 34 percent, while former Bossier Chamber of Commerce President Jeff Thompson finished just out of the money with 31 percent. It will be interesting to see where Thompson’s supporters — who included McCrery and some national GOP leaders — end up in the runoff.
On the Democratic side, Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche, the choice of national Democrats, is heavily favored in his runoff with military veteran Willie Banks, who is seeking the support of the Congressional Black Caucus. Party leaders believe Carmouche will run a strong race in December regardless of who becomes the GOP nominee.
But Carmouche could be hurt by the reshuffled election calendar that moved the general election to December. Now he will no longer be on the ballot with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), which would have been a boon in a district where 33 percent of the population is black. But party officials say that by holding the contest in December, the race will take on many of the qualities of a special election. And they point to their undefeated record in competitive special elections this year as evidence that they’ll be well-prepared for the December race.
6th district
Incumbent: Don Cazayoux (D)
1st term (49 percent)
Outlook: Tossup
After winning in a wild special election this spring, Cazayoux is now considered one of the most vulnerable Members of the House this cycle.
Not only is Cazayoux facing a much better Republican opponent in the general election than he did in the special election, but he’ll also have to fend off a well-known Democrat-turned-Independent challenger in state Rep. Michael Jackson.
Cazayoux, who is white, beat Jackson, who is black, in the Democratic special election primary this spring. But Jackson is back and he is convinced that he has a real shot, especially if he can do well among the district’s 33 percent black population.
The Republican nominee is state Sen. Bill Cassidy, a doctor who was quickly backed by state and national Republicans after announcing in June that he would run for the seat. He’s proved to be an effective fundraiser, and the National Republican Congressional Committee seems willing to spend its limited resources to try to reclaim this district.
Cazayoux is being backed up financially by national Democrats, and party officials hope the endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will shore up Cazayoux’s support among those black voters whom Jackson is targeting. Cazayoux’s campaign released polling that indicated he’s ahead of Cassidy and that Jackson is polling in the single digits. But this is one campaign that should go down to the wire.
7th district
Incumbent: Charles Boustany (R)
2nd term (71 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican
State Sen. Don Cravins Jr. (D) faces an uphill battle in his campaign to knock off Boustany in Louisiana’s conservative southwestern 7th district.
But Democrats are high on the anti-abortion-rights, pro-gun state legislator, who is black. Cravins is also the son of Don Cravins Sr., who in the 2004 open primary for this seat finished just a few votes short of making the runoff. Now national Democrats hope Cravins’ conservative credentials, his high name recognition and the district’s 25 percent black makeup might mean a winning combination this fall.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added Cravins to its “Red to Blue” fundraising and infrastructure program, although it hadn’t reserved any television time in the district as of late September.
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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