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Roll Call Staff
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Yarmuth is ahead in recent polling, but Northup is closing the gap. This Louisville-based district favors Democrats, and Northup’s ability to hold onto it for so long was a testament to her political strength, even if it was an aberration.
The district leans Democratic in presidential elections, and the presence of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) at the top of the ballot could boost turnout among the district’s 20 percent black population, which should help Yarmuth.
But Northup is a skillful campaigner and solid fundraiser, and she shouldn’t be counted out yet. The presence of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), a close confidant of Northup’s, on the ballot could boost her.
Louisiana
Senate
Incumbent: Mary Landrieu (D)
2nd term (52 percent)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Landrieu is used to tight races, and her reelection this cycle isn’t expected to be any different. In fact, her seat presents the one real pickup opportunity for the GOP during a cycle in which Senate Republicans are mostly playing defense.
National GOP officials are excited about the candidacy of John Kennedy, a former Democrat who switched parties in 2007 before winning re-election for a third term as state treasurer. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has already spent heavily to support his campaign and hit Landrieu for being an example of “politics as usual” in Washington, D.C.
But Landrieu hasn’t made any real missteps yet. In a state that is trending Republican, Landrieu is running as a political moderate whose rising seniority will help the Bayou State as it deals with energy challenges and the ever-present threat of natural disasters. That image was probably boosted by her work to help recovery efforts in the state following Hurricane Gustav.
Landrieu was the first on the air with ads in this race and some polling over the summer showed her opening up a lead on Kennedy. But it would be foolish to assume that this one won’t go down to the wire.
House
2nd district
Incumbent: William Jefferson (D)
9th term (57 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic
After Louisiana reshuffled its election calendar in the wake of Hurricane Gustav, the Democratic primary won’t be decided until a runoff on Nov. 4. And that means the general election in the New Orleans-based district will not take place until early December.
Despite being the target of a federal corruption probe, Jefferson won one-quarter of the vote in a crowded Democratic primary on Oct. 4 and will face local TV news personality Helena Moreno in the runoff. Moreno, the one non-African-American on the ballot, took 20 percent.
Moreno is Hispanic and Jefferson is black, and some insiders think Jefferson will get a boost from the large number of black voters who are expected to turn out in November to vote for Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).
If he does win, Jefferson will head to the general election on Dec. 6. That’s just two days after the Congressman is scheduled to be in Washington, D.C., to begin his federal corruption trial. He’s been the subject of a federal probe since 2005.
The Republican in the race is Anh Cao, a New Orleans lawyer and former Jesuit seminarian. But he’s seen mostly as a sacrificial lamb.
The 2nd district is a Democratic stronghold with a majority black population and a history of sending Democrats to Congress by wide margins. The 2nd district voted for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) by a more than 3-1 ratio over President Bush in 2004. And while the demographics of the New Orleans-based district have changed since 2005’s Hurricane Katrina, it’s still very Democratic.
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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