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12th district
Incumbent: John Barrow (D)
2nd term (50 percent)
Outlook: Likely Democratic

Barrow has won two narrow general election victories, but he will have an easier time in November, particularly with the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) working hard to turn out the state’s large population of black voters. Georgia’s eastern 12th district is nearly 45 percent black.

Obama endorsed Barrow in the primary and the Congressman easily won that race against a black state Senator.

Now Barrow is well-funded and better-entrenched than he was in 2006, when he was still consolidating support after having his seat redrawn in 2005.

Barrow is facing John Stone (R), a radio personality and former Congressional aide who, despite ties to ex-Rep. Max Burns (R-Ga.) and the late Rep. Charlie Norwood (R-Ga.), doesn’t have a large base of support in the district and isn’t seen as a top-flight candidate by the national party.

Kentucky

Senate

Incumbent: Mitch McConnell (R)
4th term (65 percent)
Outlook: Leans Republican

Democrats have tried to make McConnell a top target this cycle and they found a top-tier challenger to carry the party banner, but the Senate Minority Leader has maintained a lead in the polls so far. However, the contest appears to be getting tighter.

In the end, McConnell — the de facto head of the GOP in Kentucky — may just be too well-entrenched in a seat that he has held since 1984. But that doesn’t mean he won’t have to sweat his re-election down to the wire.

Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford continues to run a vigorous campaign that is being heavily supported by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Lunsford has also received fundraising help from party bigwigs such as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).

The Senator’s campaign released a poll in mid-September that showed him up by 17 points, but some other surveys have the race within the margin of error.

One reason the national Democrats are going all-out for Lunsford is that even if Lunsford loses his race, he’s at least keeping McConnell busy in Kentucky this fall. That means that the GOP leader has less time and fewer resources to spread around the country to help his colleagues in other races that Democrats are targeting.

House

2nd district
Open seat: Ron Lewis (R) is retiring
Outlook: Leans Republican

Recent polling has shown state Sen. David Boswell (D) leading the race, but some political observers have been skeptical of those numbers considering Boswell is running in a district that President Bush won by 31 points in 2004.

Also, Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie, a military veteran whom party officials are high on, dominated the cash-on-hand battle in federal election reports through the first half of the year.

But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s inclusion of Boswell in its “Red to Blue” fundraising and infrastructure program — not to mention the fact that the committee has reserved nearly $1 million in airtime in the district — appears to be a sign that the party is willing to commit the resources necessary to make up for any fundraising disadvantage on Boswell’s part.

Leading up to Election Day, fundraising will certainly be important as both candidates will be paying for airtime in the expensive Louisville media market, where most district voters live.

Guthrie is poised to get a bigger boost from having Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the top of the ticket than Boswell will from Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). Kentucky was one of Obama’s worst-performing states in the Democratic primaries.

3rd district
Incumbent: John Yarmuth (D)
1st term (51 percent)
Outlook: Leans Democratic

Anne Northup (R), the five-term Congresswoman who was swept from office in the anti-Republican wave of 2006, is looking to reclaim her old House seat from Yarmuth.