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8th district
Incumbent: Patrick Murphy (D)
1st term (50 percent)
Outlook: Likely Democratic

Murphy appears to be on track for a relatively easy first re- election. Though Republicans touted retired Marine Corps Col. Tom Manion initially, his abundant fundraising slowed down by summertime. It’s hard to mount a credible challenge in southeastern Pennsylvania without having the bank account to back it.

What Manion does have going for him, however, is the Democratic presidential ticket. The district voted overwhelmingly for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) over Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the April primary, and perhaps Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) will do better in the district than past Republican presidential candidates have. The district voted Democratic in both the 2000 and 2004 contests.

Though Manion’s campaign could pick up speed as the election grows closer, it’s unlikely that Murphy will lose his seat this cycle.

10th district
Incumbent: Christopher Carney (D)
1st term (53 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

Carney now seems to be on more steady footing in a district that many Republicans argued he could not hold for a second term when he was first elected. Though in a competitive race with businessman Chris Hackett (R), Carney appears to have done everything he could to position himself for re-election.

Arguably no other freshman has separated himself or herself further from the national Democratic Party: Carney has not explicitly endorsed his party’s presidential nominee, he skipped the national convention to serve his time in the Navy Reserves, and he has yet to use the label “Democrat” in an advertisement. If Carney loses, it’s because the district is too Republican for any Democrat to keep the seat.

Hackett, on the other hand, brands himself in every television ad as a “conservative Republican.” Watch for Hackett to continue to play to the GOP base leading up to Election Day. Republicans are banking on the fact that more of their party’s faithful voters will turn out because it is a presidential election year and that many of those people stayed home in 2006 because they could not bring themselves to vote for scandal- embroiled Rep. Don Sherwood (R).

Democrats argue that Carney has established himself as an independent enough that some of those voters won’t mind splitting their tickets. We’ll see who’s right on Election Day.

11th district
Incumbent: Paul Kanjorski (D)
12th term (72 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

This should be a safe seat for Democrats, but Kanjorski has earned the dubious title of being one of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle. While none of the ethical concerns Kanjorski’s being hit with are new, the national climate of change and his high-profile opponent have put his re-election in grave jeopardy.

Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, who amassed a national cult following for enacting anti- immigration ordinances in his small town, has given Republicans one of their best pickup opportunities in the country. So far, most public polls show Barletta leading Kanjorski.

Barletta, who already has declined to support GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), will likely move further away from the national GOP in the weeks to come. He’ll likely want to present himself as a Washington outsider who produces results. Kanjorksi, on the other hand, will emphasize his longtime ties to the district and won’t be afraid to paint Barletta in a negative light.

15th district
Incumbent: Charlie Dent
2nd term (54 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican

Dent is expected to win re-election in this suburban Philadelphia district. His competition, Allentown Democratic Chairwoman Sam Bennett, does not appear to be gaining any traction in the Democratic-leaning district. Public polling for the race has been sparse.