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Massa is unvarnished in certain ways, but he appeals to many grass-roots voters, and he has become a much savvier candidate this time around, with a loyal following who may be able to put him over the top.

Pennsylvania

House

3rd district
Incumbent: Phil English (R)
7th term (54 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

English, who has never really faced a difficult challenge in this marginally Republican district, has steadily risen to become one of Democrats’ top incumbent targets this cycle. Businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D) is challenging him.

National Democrats are already investing funds in the race, and public polls have shown a close contest so far.

As both candidates bombard the airwaves this month, it will be interesting to see if English’s tested formula for presenting himself as a labor-friendly moderate will still be effective in northwestern Pennsylvania. In fact, one of the reasons Dahlkemper might be so successful is that she is running on a business-friendly, outsider message — perhaps a winning formula of her own for the Rust Belt district.

But as a political novice and first-time candidate, Dahlkemper is untested and has some liabilities. Republicans have hit her on opposing the death penalty for Osama bin Laden and pressed her to release more of her tax returns. Dahlkemper can expect more of that in the final weeks before the election.

4th district
Incumbent: Jason Altmire (D)
1st term (52 percent)
Outlook: Leans Democratic

Former Rep. Melissa Hart (R), whom Altmire defeated in 2006, has shown she is not afraid to go negative this cycle. After being reluctant to do so last time, she started out with an early TV advertisement hitting the freshman Democrat hard.

The last few weeks of this contest will likely feature the same tone, with Hart presumably attacking Altmire and national Democrats’ attempts to connect Hart’s time in Congress with President Bush. Whether Hart’s strategy will work and her ability to break through as a challenger in the suburban Pittsburgh district is questionable.

Though polls show Hart in a position to possibly take back the seat, she might not have the traction or national attention to carry her across the finish line. As an incumbent in 2006, her race was a priority for the national GOP. This cycle, House Republicans have very limited funds and challenger races are far down the list of spending priorities.

Altmire, meanwhile, will have all the funds needed to stay on television.

5th district
Open seat: John Peterson (R) is retiring
Outlook: Safe Republican

When Peterson suddenly announced his retirement in late January, nine Republican candidates emerged with no frontrunner in sight. A few days before the April primary, Peterson played kingmaker and endorsed Centre County GOP Chairman G.T. Thompson. It was enough momentum to carry Thompson across the finish line and into position to succeed Peterson.

The district votes Republican, and Thompson is expected to win in November with minimal effort.

6th district
Incumbent: Jim Gerlach (R)
3rd term (51 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican

This fall, Gerlach will have an easier time campaigning than in past cycles when he’s had to defend his suburban Philadelphia seat against top-tier challengers. Democrats nominated businessman Bob Roggio to take on Gerlach this cycle, but so far his fundraising has been lackluster — especially considering he is running in the very expensive Philadelphia media market.

Democrats’ inability to topple Gerlach in the wave election of 2006 was one of the party’s biggest disappointments, and it made recruiting a top-tier candidate this cycle all the more difficult.

Roggio doesn’t appear to be someone who can knock Gerlach out. As of late September, Gerlach was not even on the TV airwaves yet — a sign the Congressman doesn’t seem to be grave danger of losing this swing seat.