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Still, he has an intriguing and potentially strong challenger in Richard Hanna (R), a wealthy construction company owner. Hanna is engaging and somewhat unconventional, and his politics are very much in the mold of Arcuri’s popular long-serving predecessor, moderate former Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R).

But Hanna did not get into the race until May. Even though he’s spending a decent amount of his own money — $324,000 through Aug. 20 — there is a freewheeling, ad hoc quality to his campaign, and Republican leaders can only help but wonder what things might have been like if Hanna had started campaigning earlier.

Arcuri had $758,000 in the bank as of Aug. 20.

25th district
Open seat: Jim Walsh (R) is retiring
Outlook: Likely Democratic

Former Capitol Hill staffer Dan Maffei (D), who gave Walsh the political scare of his life in 2006, is favored to replace the Congressman now that the Republican is retiring.

The Syracuse-based district leans Democratic in presidential elections, and Maffei never really stopped running after his 2-point loss last cycle. It took Republicans an unusually long time to coalesce behind a candidate after Walsh announced his retirement. And while their nominee, former Onondaga Legislator Dale Sweetland, is a credible candidate with a solid record of public service, Maffei simply had too big a head start for this race to become truly competitive.

Through Aug. 20, Maffei had $578,000 in cash on hand after spending more than $1 million; Sweetland had $104,000 in the bank after spending just $90,000.

26th district
Open seat: Tom Reynolds (R) is retiring
Outlook: Leans Republican

Both parties are expressing confidence about the race to replace Reynolds, a true Western New York powerhouse and one of the savviest pols around.

The district’s demographics favor the GOP slightly, but if national Democrats and their interest groups pump enough money into the race, then the Democratic nominee, attorney Alice Kryzan, can be quite competitive.

Republicans nominated Chris Lee, a wealthy businessman who, wisely, turned to Reynolds’ political team to guide his campaign. He is a political unknown but is presenting himself as a fresh face and a political outsider, and he has more than enough personal money to run a high-grade political operation.

Lee also benefits because under New York’s quirky election law, he is on the ballot in three places in November: In addition to the GOP line, he is also the nominee of the Independence and Conservative parties.

Kryzan emerged as the surprise winner of a tough, three-way Democratic primary. She was the least bloodied of the three Democratic candidates, but she may be too liberal for the district, and she is way behind Lee in the fundraising department. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List — which pointedly did not endorse Kryzan in the primary — are prepared to narrow the cash gap.

This race should get rough in short order. It would not be surprising to see Kryzan win, but Lee must be considered the slight favorite for now.

29th district
Incumbent: Randy Kuhl (R)
2nd term (51 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

Kuhl’s rematch with retired Navy officer Eric Massa (D) is at least as tight as last time, and it may even be closer. Kuhl seemed to sleepwalk through the first half of the cycle, at least on the fundraising front, and he seemed a little more vulnerable six months ago. But he picked up the fundraising pace, and he and Massa were about even in the most recent fundraising report. Through Aug. 20, the Congressman had $572,000 on hand and the challenger had $534,000.

The sprawling 29th district leans Republican in presidential elections, and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) should do well there. But the overall malaise afflicting the New York GOP is undoubtedly a drain on Kuhl.