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Everything that could have gone wrong for Republicans this cycle in this Staten Island- Brooklyn district — the only seat the GOP holds in New York City — did go wrong.

It started when Fossella was picked up for drunken driving in suburban Virginia in May. Within days, New York papers were reporting that Fossella had fathered a young daughter with a woman who was not his wife.

Although Fossella considered staying in the race, he finally concluded he could not win. But even in the city’s lone GOP stronghold, Republicans could not find a strong contender to run in his place. For a time, they were reasonably happy when a retired Wall Street financier got into the race, but he died suddenly of a heart attack in early summer.

Finally, Republicans were stuck with former state Assemblyman Robert Straniere, who secured the GOP nomination despite the fact that every party leader on Staten Island hates him.

Democrats, meanwhile, used Fossella’s troubles to place even more emphasis on this district than they had before, and once the Congressman dropped out, New York City Councilman Michael McMahon (D), who had resisted previous entreaties to run for the seat, entered the race.

Following some bizarre maneuvering to try to get Fossella back into the race in late September, Republicans now seem resigned to losing this seat. It’s hard to see the race turning out otherwise.

20th district
Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
1st term (53 percent)
Outlook: Leans Democratic

This is a seat Republicans would dearly love to win back, after their ethically damaged incumbent lost in 2006. They got an A-list challenger in Sandy Treadwell, a genial former New York secretary of state and state GOP chairman who is personally wealthy and whose profile fits the upstate district well — fiscally conservative, socially moderate and strong on the environment.

But Gillibrand has proved to be a force of nature — ubiquitous in the district, a prodigious fundraiser, and, as a mother of two young children, able to connect with many of her constituents. She may be a little too liberal for her district on paper, but she has worked smartly to overcome that obstacle.

As of Aug. 20, Treadwell had put about $2.6 million of his own money into the race, and he had aired 11 TV ads through late September. But Gillibrand had almost $2 million in her campaign account at the end of August, and she seems poised to win.

If this cycle were looking a little more favorable to Republicans nationally, the dynamic of this race might be different, and Gillibrand will probably never be truly safe. But the way things look now, even if Treadwell completely empties the family vault, he will probably fall a little short.

21st district
Open seat: Mike McNulty (D) is retiring
Outlook: Safe Democratic

After emerging from a crowded and competitive Democratic primary, former state Assemblyman Paul Tonko seems poised to take over for McNulty in the Albany-area district. The Republican nominee, Schenectady County Legislator Jim Buhrmaster, is credible, but the district is simply too Democratic for him to have a chance.

The district has had just two Representatives in the past half century: McNulty and the late Rep. Sam Stratton (D). Stratton was 38 when he was elected, McNulty was 41. Tonko is 58, meaning he may not accrue as much seniority as his immediate predecessors.

24th district
Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D)
1st term (54 percent)
Outlook: Likely Democratic

Arcuri won a highly competitive open-seat race fairly convincingly in 2006, and it’s hard to imagine voters in this central New York district denying him a second term.