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Delaware

Senate

Incumbent: Joseph Biden (D)
6th term (58 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic

When Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) selected Biden as his running mate in August, a number of intriguing possibilities suddenly developed for what might happen to Biden’s Senate seat.

According to Delaware law, Biden can run for Senate while running for vice president, a situation akin to 2000 when Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID) did the same thing in Connecticut when he was Al Gore’s running mate.

And since Biden isn’t expected to resign from the Senate before November, if he wins re-election (which he’s widely expected to do) but loses his vice presidential bid, he can simply return to the Senate next year.

If Biden is elected vice president, he would have until Inauguration Day to relinquish his Senate seat. Then the governor would be responsible for appointing a replacement until a special election could be held.

Conventional wisdom has long been that Biden’s son, Beau Biden, who serves as state attorney general, would one day replace his father in the Senate. But Beau Biden’s Army JAG unit just deployed to Iraq for a yearlong tour. And though Delaware Democratic insiders argue that his obligations to his JAG unit don’t necessarily take Beau Biden off the table for the Senate job, it does mean that a placeholder Senator could be appointed to fill the post until a 2010 special election could be held. At that time, Beau Biden would be coming off an overseas deployment and could make an even more attractive candidate.

Such a move might also set the stage for a major political showdown if former Gov. and longtime GOP Rep. Mike Castle decides to toss his hat into the ring for the Senate job.

But, again, that would all have to wait until the 2010 cycle.

House

At-large
Incumbent: Mike Castle (R)
8th term (57 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican

Despite hailing from a very Democratic state, Castle, the state’s former governor, is a very popular moderate Republican who should keep the state’s only House seat in the GOP column as long as he runs.

But with the possibility that Sen. Joseph Biden (D) could be elected vice president in November, Castle could soon be the obvious choice for his party to run in a special Senate election. Castle would give any Democrat a tough fight, although moving to the Senate would mean that his Congressional seat would suddenly become a top target for a Democratic takeover.

For now, though, Castle is on course to win a 9th term in November and extend his record as the longest-serving House Member in state history.

Maryland

House

1st district
Open seat: Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary
Outlook: Leans Republican

After fending off repeated primary challenges from the right in recent cycles, Gilchrest, one of the leading GOP moderates in the House, lost to conservative state Sen. Andy Harris in a bitter February primary.

Now Democrats feel they have their best shot in years to win this sprawling district that Gilchrest has held since 1990. To do so, the state and national party has rallied behind Queen Anne County State’s Attorney Frank Kratovil (D), a tough-on-crime environmentalist who is billing himself as the ideological heir to Gilchrest’s moderate mantle.

Kratovil got a huge boost in that effort in early September when Gilchrest officially endorsed the Democrat, a move that, though not entirely surprising, brought harsh rebukes from the state and national GOP.

Despite recent Democratic polling that showed the race to be tied, most observers still consider the contest to be an uphill battle for Kratovil. The 1st district is one of only two in the state to vote to send George W. Bush to the White House in 2000 and 2004. It did so both times by wide margins.